Kremlin elites are ready for compromises, but not putin – political scientist Andriy Horodnytskyi
There are currently no conditions for successful direct negotiations between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and russian dictator vladimir putin, since the head of the kremlin is not ready for either compromises or personal dialogue with the Ukrainian leader. This opinion was expressed in a comment to OstroV by Doctor of Philosophy and political expert Andriy Horodnytskyi.
“Results will come when russia is destroyed, completely defeated, and no longer has the ability to continue the war against Ukraine. Then there will be results. As our work improves on the front, and as Ukrainian territories are liberated, greater effectiveness will also appear. You will not get any other results. And forget about the idea that putin can be persuaded through diplomatic negotiations”, - Horodnytskyi said.
According to the expert, even if part of the russian elite is ready for compromises, the final decision remains with putin, who shows no willingness to end the war.
“Putin will never make concessions. I think his entourage would gladly do so already. They are ready for certain compromises and even for a ceasefire. But putin himself is not ready for that”, - the political scientist noted.
Andriy Horodnytskyi believes that in the coming months the key issue for russia will not be the negotiation process, but the future of putin himself and his ability to maintain control over the power vertical.
“By the end of the year it should become clear whether he will continue to govern this quasi-state, or whether someone else will take his place, and in what format russian power will exist at all. They want to preserve the current vertical of governance, but without its top — without putin”, - the expert believes.
According to him, if the russian leader manages to maintain control over the security services, the military, and the economic elites, he will continue the course of escalating the war and internal repression.
“If putin manages to hold power, then he will continue this war. He will carry out a new mobilization and tighten the screws even more. This plan has long been set in motion and will be implemented to the end. Therefore, there will be no easing inside russia”, - Andriy Horodnytskyi emphasized.
At the same time, the expert does not rule out a scenario of regime change in russia, but believes that putin will not voluntarily leave office.
“He will not give up power on his own. There will be no ‘I’m tired, I’m leaving’ scenario. He will not do it. Only his physical removal and the emergence of a new leader can open the path to a ceasefire”, - the political scientist said.
Separately, Horodnytskyi commented on the prospects of a personal meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and vladimir putin, calling such a scenario unlikely.
“But I can say one thing: putin himself will never in his life meet with Zelensky. Remember this. There will never be direct communication between Zelensky and putin. There may be delegation talks and various multilateral formats, as has already happened before. But I do not believe that putin will personally sit down at the negotiating table with Zelensky”, - the expert concluded.