“Not a disaster”. German experts estimated losses to Ukraine’s economy caused by Donbass blockade 03/22/2017 14:00:45. Total views 569. Views today — 0.

The German advisory group working in Ukraine estimated losses incurred to the Ukrainian economy by the ban to transport goods across the demarcation line in the Donbass at 1.6 % of the gross domestic product, advisory group head Ricardo Giucci told DW.

"We have estimated that the uncontrolled areas now generate 1.6 % of Ukraine's GDP", -  he said.

According to him, the steel-producing industry will face the biggest problems, while the impact on power generating industry will be significant as well. The German economist noted that in general, "from the macroeconomic point of view, this is undoubtedly a shock for the country", otherwise the IMF would not suspend the next disbursement under the Extended Fund Facility program, but "this is not a disaster".

He explained that although the production chains in the Donbas were closely linked with the other part of the country in 2013, now the situation has changed.

"We do not expect strong impact on the other sectors. These two regions have already separated to a significant extent. Anthracite coal and coke can be imported. It will be more expensive over delivery issues, but Ukraine can cope with it without major negative consequences", - Giucci said.

As previously reported, the National Bank lowered the country's GDP growth forecast for 2017 to 1.9% from 2.8%, predicted earlier. This was done to clarify macroeconomic forecasts for Ukraine after the beginning of the trade blockade of the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts after the decision of the National Security Council of Ukraine.