Territorial concessions will not bring genuine peace closer: political scientist Andrii Horodnytskyi on the prospects for negotiations
A real window of opportunity for negotiations to end the war will depend on the state of russia, but a temporary ceasefire will not solve the problem, since moscow will not abandon its ambition to destroy Ukrainian statehood. This opinion was expressed by PhD and political expert Andrii Horodnytskyi in a comment to “OstroV”.
“Perhaps the ‘window’ will open slightly, creating a small gap. Later, the opportunity for negotiations may become wider. Everything will depend on the condition russia is in”, - the expert said.
According to Horodnytskyi, a temporary ceasefire does not guarantee an end to the war, even if Ukraine increases military and economic pressure on russia, particularly by striking oil refineries.
“The mechanism for ending this war is actually very simple. There are two fundamental scenarios. The first is Ukraine’s capitulation. This would mean occupation, a Holodomor, the destruction of the elites, tens of millions of victims, and the destruction of the Ukrainian language, culture and everything else. In other words, everything we have already experienced in our history. The second scenario is Ukraine’s victory”, - he noted.
At the same time, the expert does not rule out a change of power in russia as one possible development. According to him, in theory, a politician could come to power who would agree to return the occupied territories to Ukraine, although such a scenario is unlikely.
“This is a utopian scenario, but it cannot be completely ruled out. The probability may be negligible—an arbitrary 0.01%—but some chance exists”, - Andrii Horodnytskyi said.
He added that even a change in russian leadership would not necessarily lead moscow to abandon its imperial ambitions. The new authorities might agree to a temporary ceasefire, but that would not mean the threat to Ukraine had disappeared.
“Will their desire to destroy Ukraine disappear? No. The russian imperialist spirit will not go anywhere, even if we are talking about a politician who would be described as liberal”, - the expert emphasized.
In his view, this is precisely why proposals to end hostilities by making territorial concessions to russia do not guarantee lasting peace. Andrii Horodnytskyi believes that such approaches fail to take Ukraine’s previous experience in its relations with moscow into account.
“That is precisely why all the calls from today’s would-be politicians and would-be experts, who want to claw their way into power and insist that we need to stop everything now, give up territories, and then peace will come, do not work”, - he said.
The expert recalled that russia’s war against Ukraine has been going on for more than ten years, and previous ceasefire agreements and attempts to limit hostilities in Donbas failed to secure lasting peace.
“We have already negotiated ceasefires with the russians. I think everyone remembers how attempts were made to confine hostilities in Donbas to certain territories, how we were ready for reconciliation, how people talked about the russians’ strength, the russian language and the need to reach agreements. We have been through all of this already. And it did not work”, - Andrii Horodnytskyi noted.
He is convinced that russia’s strategic objective is not simply to seize individual territories, but to destroy Ukrainian statehood, russify the country and assimilate the Ukrainian population.
“Russia needs the total occupation of Ukraine, its destruction, the russification and assimilation of the Ukrainian population. It does not need a free Ukraine. Putin speaks openly about this in his interviews, claiming that Ukraine cannot exist independently. This is not a verbatim quotation, but that is precisely what his words mean”, - the expert said.