Without large-scale mobilization, russia will be unable to turn the tide — military expert Vladyslav Selezniov
The pace of the russian army’s advance on the front has slowed significantly compared with the same period last year. Despite numerical superiority in certain sectors, russian troops have failed to achieve even a small fraction of the campaign’s planned objectives. Military expert and former spokesperson for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Vladyslav Selezniov said this in an interview with Ostrov.
“The situation remains difficult and quite dynamic. It is determined primarily by the resilience of the Ukrainian army: our soldiers are carrying out combat missions under difficult conditions. I will not even dwell on the fact that over the past month we have killed and wounded more than 54,000 russian servicemen. In addition, during the recent period, we have recorded at least two record figures for enemy combat losses”, - he noted.
According to the expert, one of the most notable developments in the recent period has been the slowdown in russian advances. The enemy is stepping up its activities in certain areas, trying to achieve at least some of the objectives of its spring-summer campaign plan, but overall its results remain significantly below those planned.
Selezniov named three main factors that enable Ukrainian troops to hold their defensive positions. The first is the training and motivation of servicemen carrying out missions directly on the front line. The second is properly equipped defensive positions and engineering fortifications that impede the advance of russian units.
The third factor, according to the expert, is drones, which have a significant impact on the nature of combat operations and partially compensate for the shortage of personnel in Ukraine’s Defence Forces.
“They are precisely what radically changes the situation on the battlefield and, to some extent, compensates for the shortage of personnel in Ukraine’s Defence Forces directly on the front line. These are the three key factors underpinning our defence”, - Selezniov explained.
He believes that the current situation at the front indicates a gradual depletion of the russian army’s offensive potential. At the same time, this does not mean that the enemy has lost its ability to launch strikes or conduct offensive operations in certain sectors.
Russia continues to use artillery systems, ammunition and aircraft capable of carrying guided aerial bombs. In addition, the enemy is increasing drone production, including jet-powered drones, which pose additional challenges for Ukrainian troops in the frontline zone.
However, in Selezniov’s opinion, without large-scale mobilisation measures and a full-scale shift of the economy to a wartime footing, russia is unlikely to achieve any fundamental changes on the battlefield.
“I think the situation on the battlefield is a clear indicator that the enemy’s offensive potential is being exhausted”, - the expert stressed.
He also drew attention to the duration of the full-scale war and the discrepancy between russia’s territorial gains and the kremlin’s ambitions. According to him, despite constant claims that russia is capable of waging a prolonged war, its army has been advancing for a considerable period primarily across the territories of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.