1. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump’s special envoys, Witkoff and Kushner, are proposing to use Ukraine’s gas transmission system to resume supplies of russian gas to European buyers. The plan envisages sales being carried out through an American intermediary.
The European Union is opposed: this could make Europe’s energy sector dependent on moscow. At the same time, supporters of the proposal hope that rising energy prices due to the Middle East crisis will force some European countries to reconsider their position.
This gamble undermines Ukraine’s existential strategic interests. As of today, the main outcome of the war for Kyiv is no longer the restoration of the 1991 borders, but the economic and political exhaustion of russia, so that it cannot repeat its aggression in the future, creating conditions for the return of territories through diplomatic means. The Americans, however, are proposing a deal that would effectively consolidate the results of russian aggression in moscow’s favor while also giving it the opportunity to rebuild its resources for future wars. And all this so that American companies can profit from russian gas. If Kyiv or Europe agrees to such a deal, it will be like shooting itself in the foot in the struggle for the right to survive. It would render all the sacrifices and suffering of the Ukrainian people meaningless.
2. During the night of November 2, monitoring channels reported a drone attack on Transneft’s Samara hub near the settlement of Prosvet, where the Urals export blend is prepared.
Samara has now been attacked for the fourth time in a month. At the same time, russia is unable to protect this important facility from aerial attacks. This indicates that Ukraine’s air defense has been bled dry by a physical lack of interceptor missiles, while russia’s air defense has been depleted by the enormous territory it needs to protect. russia still lacks the technological capabilities to do so.
The attack on the oil facility ahead of the U.S. elections is another signal to the kremlin that any U.S.-russia agreements on Ukraine made behind Kyiv’s back cannot be guaranteed by Washington, and that negotiations must be conducted with Ukraine itself.
3. Zelensky summed up October: according to his data, Ukraine’s Defense Forces liberated 96.2 square kilometers, 10.4 square kilometers more than the enemy managed to capture.
A positive territorial balance for October is Kyiv’s first argument of this kind in a long time ahead of negotiations, undermining the kremlin’s claim that further advances are inevitable. It also indicates that, on the battlefield, the war has reached a zero-sum balance for moscow, which should encourage putin to do two things: consider genuine negotiations and intensify strikes against Ukraine’s rear. If Kyiv manages to achieve at least psychological parity with moscow in its ability to strike the enemy’s rear, a halt to hostilities will become a realistic prospect.
By Serhii Harmash, editor-in-chief of OstroV