1. In an interview with TSN, Zelensky outlined the “red lines” ahead of the trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the U.S., and the russian federation in November: “We cannot talk about our state’s neutrality. And we cannot talk about limiting the Ukrainian army”. Zelensky called the territorial issue a red line that could be discussed exclusively at the level of national leaders. On the same day, putin’s aide Ushakov lowered expectations for the next round of negotiations: “You can’t resolve much in the first meeting either; it will probably be more of a preliminary, exploratory meeting”. According to him, the meeting could take place after November 4.
Kyiv is ruling out two issues in advance as subjects for negotiation — neutrality and limits on the army. Significantly, the main stumbling block today — the territory of Donbas — is no longer an unconditional red line but one that could be discussed at a meeting between the leaders. This hints that a decision on this issue favorable to the russian federation is possible, but only at a face-to-face meeting between Zelensky and putin. Given Zelensky’s entire previous rhetoric, it is highly likely that this does not indicate a willingness to surrender Donbas but is instead a diplomatic ploy aimed at putin to persuade him to meet in person, as well as a justification to Trump: “We are ready to discuss even this, but putin doesn’t want to”.
Kyiv and the kremlin have effectively synchronized their negotiating schedules around November 3–4: both sides are waiting to see whether the balance of power in Washington will change. The negotiating tactics and the degree of compromise at the talks will depend on this.
2. On the afternoon of October 25, cruise missiles struck the Energia plant in Yelets, the Lipetsk oblast — the largest facility in the russia producing batteries for the Iskander-M, Iskander-K, Zircon, and Pantsir systems, as well as batteries for drones. On the same day, UAVs reached Perm Krai, about 1,700 km from the Ukrainian border. The presumed target was AVISMA, a titanium alloy manufacturer in Berezniki.
Yelets is a link in the ammunition production chain. Without batteries, neither Iskander missiles nor attack drones can fly. One possible effect is a reduction in the pace of missile attacks. At the same time, moscow is being forced to stretch its air defenses across the entire European part of the country and the Urals, objectively weakening protection for frontline airfields and logistics.
3. Muscovy carried out demonstrative strikes on Epicentr shopping centers in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Vinnytsia, and Poltava. Epicentr’s press service described them as “the total destruction of the chain”.
Striking four facilities belonging to the same retail chain in a single day is not simply retaliation for Ozon and Wildberries, but one stage in a systematic campaign to freeze Ukraine during the winter. Epicentr stores are primarily home improvement retailers, meaning they are part of the civilian infrastructure for repairs and heating. Moreover, by striking civilian logistics and retail facilities, the kremlin is exacerbating the impact of the “utility collapse” it plans to inflict on Ukraine during the winter.
4. Early parliamentary elections were held in Serbia on October 25. Aleksandar Vučić, who stepped down as president in September to run in the elections as a prime ministerial candidate, conceded defeat. The “Student List”, which emerged from the street protest movement, is expected to win between 135 and 140 of the 250 seats, while Vučić’s party is projected to win around 105.
Serbia was the only European country that openly combined its goal of joining the EU with a refusal to impose sanctions against the russian federation. A change of power here objectively weakens moscow’s influence in the Balkans. However, the winners’ foreign policy program has not yet been outlined, and the question of the balance between Brussels, Washington, and moscow remains open.
By Serhii Harmash, editor-in-chief of OstroV