“Russian dictator putin once told some of his close associates: ‘They will hang me’, The Economist writes, citing an anonymous source. The publication provides no context for the phrase. According to the publication, fear of defeat and loss of power could push putin toward a new escalation of the war”, - the “Dozhd” Telegram channel reported on August 31.
Sources close to the kremlin claim that after several weeks of deliberation this summer, putin apparently decided to escalate the war. A source who has long been connected to the kremlin chief also said that putin viewed the recent visit to moscow by CIA Director John Ratcliffe as a sign of U.S. weakness.
According to The Economist source, putin reacted similarly to the visit of CIA Director Bill Burns in November 2021. Burns came to warn the russian president against invading Ukraine, but three months later russia launched a full-scale war.
The Economist explains the possible escalation by growing internal pressure on the kremlin. Ending the war without achieving at least the minimum objective — capturing the entire Donbas — could look like a defeat and, according to the publication, put putin’s power and life at risk. However, continuing the war in its current form is also merely consuming economic resources and political capital. Therefore, escalation may seem to putin like a way to change the course of the war without demonstrating weakness.
The Economist bases its assessment of growing internal pressure, in particular, on the mood among russians. According to data from the Levada Center cited by the publication, 57% of respondents describe the situation in the country as “tense”, mentioning the war, casualties, mobilization, and a lack of a sense of the future.
Among the russian elites, the mood is “even darker”, the publication claims. One source said that nearly five years of war in themselves constitute a failure, whatever its outcome may be. Another source spoke of a growing sense that “the king is naked”.
The Economist also suggests that russia may intensify sabotage and hybrid attacks against Ukraine’s allies, as well as attempt to attack supply routes and European companies producing military equipment. At the same time, Western intelligence services do not believe that putin wants a direct confrontation with NATO, the publication emphasizes.