After the end of its summer offensive campaign, which failed to achieve its strategic objectives, the russian command will have to stabilize the front and accumulate resources for a new operation. Pavlo Lakiichuk, Head of Security Programs at the Strategy XXI Center for Global Studies and a retired Ukrainian Navy Captain 1st Rank, told OstroV.
"The summer campaign is coming to an end. Because what does a strategic operation consist of? Resources and timing. Resources are spent according to the timeline. Eventually, when a task is not completed within a specified period, the resources allocated to accomplish it run out. A new operation must be planned, and new resources must be determined", - the expert explained.
Lakiichuk noted that the russian command is evidently already aware that the campaign's key strategic objective has not been achieved.
In his opinion, the russians' immediate task will be to try to stabilize the situation on the front and prevent Ukrainian successes from developing further.
"Their task, undoubtedly, is to stabilize the front and prevent Ukraine from launching a counteroffensive. The second task, if they succeed, is to accumulate resources for the next operation", - Lakiichuk noted.
He stressed that the kremlin's abandonment of its declared territorial objectives would mean that the entire russian strategy would have to be revised, but there are currently no grounds to say that it is abandoning them.
"As long as putin does not abandon his plans, they need to accumulate resources, determine the main strike directions for the winter and spring campaigns, and continue hostilities", - the expert said.
According to Lakiichuk, one of the key factors in predicting russia's further actions will be where exactly the russian command begins concentrating its reserves.
"We need to watch how reserves and resources are being formed and at which sectors they will be accumulated", - he noted.
At the same time, the expert cautioned against automatically assuming that the next russian campaign will necessarily repeat the previous one.
"And here lies a trap for analysts. Because the direction of the enemy's possible actions in winter, say, during the winter-spring period, seems obvious. Since they have repeatedly banged their heads against the wall in the same direction, it seems obvious that they will do so a fourth time as well", - Lakiichuk explained.
However, according to him, the russian command may try to change both the direction of its main strike and the very concept of its offensive.
"But this is obvious only at first glance. A change in the direction of the main strikes or a change in the concept of the offensive is entirely possible. There may be surprises here, too", - the expert said.
Thus, the further situation on the front will largely depend on whether russia can restore its offensive potential after the resources it expended during the summer campaign, and where exactly it decides to deploy the resources it has accumulated.