Operation “Vivaldi” disrupts russia's strategic plan to encircle Ukrainian troops in Donbas — military expert Pavlo Lakiichuk Operation “Vivaldi” in the Lyman direction is of strategic importance, as it disrupts the russian command's plan to envelop and encircle the main forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in northwestern Donbas. Pavlo Lakiichuk, head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI” and a retired first-rank captain of the Ukrainian Navy, told OstroV.
According to him, at least since the summer campaign of 2025, the russian command has been building an offensive operation in Donbas according to a scenario involving the envelopment of the Ukrainian grouping from two directions.
“The main plan is to encircle and defeat the main forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are concentrated in northwestern Donbas”, - Lakiichuk explained.
He noted that the russian plan envisages an advance from the south, from the Pokrovsk direction through Dobropillia, and simultaneous movement from the north, from the Lyman direction toward Sloviansk. If these directions were successfully connected, russian troops could form a large-scale encirclement of the Ukrainian grouping.
“If the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk grouping of our troops is enveloped from the south, from the Pokrovsk direction northward, with strikes toward Dobropillia, and from the north, or from the Lyman direction toward Sloviansk, putin's generals believe they can create a strategic pocket like those seen during World War II”, - he said.
In the expert's opinion, if such a plan were implemented, russia could either attempt to defeat the Ukrainian forces or use their encirclement as an instrument of political pressure on Ukraine.
“Essentially, defeat means a further collapse of the front. Strategic encirclement is a lever of pressure on Ukrainian society, which, in their view, could demand capitulation. Everything comes down to capitulation”, - Lakiichuk emphasized.
At the same time, according to him, russian troops failed to implement the plan in the southern direction.
“They stumbled at Pokrovsk and were unable to accomplish the objectives of their campaign in the south. Everything stopped at the first stage of the operation. In fact, the first objective remained in place throughout the entire operation, but they did not accomplish it, spent their forces, and stopped. In the north, they were more successful at that time”, - the expert said.
It was against this backdrop, according to Lakiichuk, that the Lyman salient formed by russian troops acquired particular importance.
Pavlo Lakiichuk believes that destroying or reducing the russian troop presence in the Lyman salient deprives the russian command of an important part of its plan to envelop the Ukrainian grouping.
“The main thing is the encirclement and defeat of this Lyman salient. That is its essence, the most important thing”, - he said.
According to the expert, at the same time, the operation allows the Defense Forces to improve their own positions and create more favorable conditions for further defense.
“And, of course, the liberation of our land, the liberation of our territories, the Defense Forces moving to better positions. This is already a tactical, even operational-tactical plan”, - Lakiichuk added.