Crimea’s liberation is possible only after the complete attrition of the enemy grouping on the peninsula — military expert Svitan
The return of occupied Crimea by military means is possible only after the phased destruction of the russian air defense system, logistics, and military infrastructure on the peninsula. Only after that will it be possible to speak about conducting a ground operation. This opinion was expressed in a comment to OstroV by military expert Roman Svitan.
"If in 2022 Crimea could have been liberated through a ground operation — reaching the Azov coast and entering the peninsula by land — then after 2023 the situation changed. The russians increased the density of their troops three- to fourfold, bringing the grouping to the necessary level of operational staffing. After that, the only realistic option became an operation involving an air component", - Svitan noted.
According to the expert, the first stage should be the final suppression of the russian air defense system and achieving air superiority.
"More than two-thirds of the russian air defense system in Crimea has already been destroyed. This makes it possible to gradually move on to the next stages of the operation", - he believes.
The second step, according to Svitan, is isolating the peninsula from russian military logistics. This involves not only strikes on bridges or crossings but also establishing constant fire control over land supply routes.
"The task is to ensure that Crimea finds itself under complete operational encirclement. For this purpose, long-range strike assets are used — cruise and ballistic missiles, drones, and aviation", - the interlocutor of OstroV explained.
The expert identifies the third stage as the systematic destruction of russian military infrastructure directly on the territory of the occupied peninsula.
According to him, military airfields, command posts, radar stations, troop deployment sites, and the energy and railway infrastructure supporting the functioning of the russian grouping should all be targeted.
"We know of approximately 150 stationary and about 100 mobile military facilities. Their phased destruction has already begun", - Svitan noted.
At the same time, he believes that a ground operation can begin only after this stage is completed.
"In my opinion, implementing all these measures will require approximately one and a half to two years. Only after that will it be possible to talk about a ground operation", - the expert said.
Explaining his reasoning, Svitan drew an analogy with the liberation of Snake Island.
According to him, Ukrainian forces first systematically destroyed russian air defense systems, equipment, ammunition depots, and personnel using long-range strike assets. Only after russian troops had effectively lost the ability to hold the island was an operation carried out to establish control over it.
"In my opinion, the same logic will be applied to Crimea. The only difference is the scale: if the liberation of Snake Island took one and a half to two months, the liberation of Crimea may take one and a half to two years", - he suggested.
According to the expert, after losing its land connection, Crimea will become a "trap" for the russian grouping, from which it will be extremely difficult to supply troops and maintain their combat capability.
"Crimea will become a kind of trap for russia. After the complete severing of the land corridor, it will have virtually no opportunity to change the situation", - Svitan concluded.