"In April, russian troops suffered net territorial losses in the war with Ukraine, losing control over 116 sq. km, calculated the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). According to analysts, this happened for the first time since the incursion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the Kursk oblast in August 2024. The data refers only to actually held territories — without taking into account zones where troops may have only temporarily penetrated without consolidating their position", - reports the Telegram channel “The Moscow Times” on May 3.
The pace of the russian army's advance is decreasing, ISW notes. If at the beginning of 2025 it advanced on average by 9.76 sq. km per day, then in the first four months of 2026 the figure was 2.9 sq. km.
ISW explains this by Ukrainian ground counterattacks, the mass use of drones, as well as communication limitations. In particular, in February 2026 russia lost the ability to use Starlink terminals, and in March Roskomnadzor blocked the messenger Telegram. All of this hit troop management, ISW believes.
Weather conditions are also influencing the course of the offensive. The winter of 2025–2026 turned out to be colder and wetter than the previous year. The conditions for the movement of equipment worsened.
At the same time, since autumn 2025, russian troops have begun using tactics of infiltration by small groups into gray zones without fully capturing them. According to ISW, the Ministry of Defense uses such operations to create the appearance of advancement in all directions of the front. In practice, many of these zones remain contested and are under constant fire from both sides.