No serious breakthroughs in negotiations on the war should be expected before autumn — political analyst Ihor Chalenko
A significant breakthrough in negotiations to end the war should not be expected in the near future, although the process itself may become noticeably more active. This opinion was expressed in a comment to OstroV by political analyst and head of the Center for Analysis and Strategies, Ihor Chalenko.
According to the expert, in the near future one can expect an intensification of the negotiation track, but it will concern form rather than the real substance of the process.
“If we are talking about form — yes, I expect intensification. If about content — not really. Because a long-term POW exchange process in the ‘1000 for 1000’ format has been launched again. We already see that this process will take place in stages within the framework of the general intensification of contacts. The issue of new contacts with the American side and whether new visits and negotiations will take place also remains”, - Ihor Chalenko noted.
According to the political analyst, the main problem remains that Washington’s position regarding the conditions for ending the war has effectively not changed.
“The negotiating position of the United States has not changed significantly. The U.S. continues trying to push Ukraine toward decisions on voluntarily withdrawing from the territory of Donetsk oblast. And in my opinion, this is the biggest problem”, - Ihor Chalenko said.
At the same time, the expert believes that the current negotiation format may be revised through the involvement of new participants.
“Right now there are more and more opportunities for a certain reformatting of the process itself and the involvement of other parties. And it would be good if China joined this process. If this does not happen, the russian Federation will always retain the opportunity to delay or block further work within the framework of the negotiation process”, - he emphasized.
According to Ihor Chalenko, Europe could conditionally become an additional representative of Ukraine’s interests, while for russia such a participant could be China.
“If Europe can act as an additional participant on the Ukrainian side, then China could do so on the russian side. At least theoretically, this could give momentum to advancing negotiations. But if we are talking specifically about the substantive part, then in my opinion no serious breakthroughs should be expected. At least not until autumn of this year”, - the political analyst concluded.