"A powerful blow to authority". Putin fears Ukraine will disrupt the kremlin’s main holiday – political analyst Horodnytsky on expectations for May 9
Ukraine is unlikely to strike the May 9 parade in moscow directly, but attacks on military facilities around the russian capital could disrupt the event itself. This opinion was expressed in a comment to OstroV by Doctor of Philosophy and political expert Andriy Horodnytsky.
"If we speak specifically about Ukrainian strikes, it is difficult to predict anything. Based on the experience of previous years, we basically did not carry out any strikes. Whether something will change this time is hard to say, because I still do not understand the goal itself. I doubt that we would strike the parade itself during the parade", - he said.
According to the expert, such a scenario does not match the Ukrainian style of warfare.
"This is definitely not our style of warfare. We have never struck civilian targets. Even energy substations were targeted only when they supported military infrastructure or military bases. Therefore, it is difficult to expect anything different now", - explained Andriy Horodnytsky.
At the same time, he suggested that strikes could be carried out against military facilities in moscow or the moscow region.
"There are a lot of military facilities there. And if 200, 300, or even 600 drones are flying toward moscow, I doubt they would hold the parade at all. To do that, one would have to be a complete idiot", - the expert noted.
Commenting on statements by President Volodymyr Zelensky about the possible appearance of Ukrainian drones over moscow, Andriy Horodnytsky called it part of information pressure on the kremlin.
"This is also a media attack aimed at showing the weakness of moscow. These statements will be covered in russia, and russians are already hearing from their own war correspondents that they are losing this war", - he said.
He emphasized that a possible disruption of the parade would become a serious blow to the personal authority of vladimir putin.
"If they are effectively prevented from holding their main holiday because of the drone threat, it will be a very powerful blow to putin’s власти and his authority", - the expert stated.
According to Andriy Horodnytsky, this is exactly why the kremlin is trying to secure support from U.S. President Donald Trump.
"Putin understands this and is afraid. That is why putin is calling Trump, so that he influences Ukraine and prevents them from planning strikes on moscow. This is a very important trigger moment. Therefore, in the media sphere, we are forced to apply maximum pressure and show that now we control the situation. As Zelensky said: now we allow you to hold the parade or not hold it", - he concluded.