Tomahawks will not become “magic weapons”. The US may delay the transfer, and their capabilities are limited — military expert
Negotiations on a possible transfer of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine are more of a political move than a military one. Even if Washington makes a positive decision, it is unlikely to deliver these missiles quickly due to technical and production constraints. This was stated in an interview with OstroV by the head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”, retired captain of the first rank of the Ukrainian Navy, Pavlo Lakiichuk.
“Every time we receive more powerful weapons, there’s a lot of talk about their superpowers supposedly capable of turning the tide of the war. I don’t think so”, - the expert noted.
According to him, Ukraine has already asked the US for Tomahawks through unofficial channels several times, but the answer has always been negative.
“In my opinion, Zelensky this time raised the stakes to the maximum before Trump. It’s our Ukrainian tactic: we ask for more, we negotiate, and meet somewhere in the middle”, - he explained.
Lakiichuk believes that even in the event of a refusal, the missiles could remain part of the political bargaining between Washington and moscow.
“If Trump is playing the ‘annoy putin’ game or trying to force him into negotiations, he might say: ‘I’ll give the Ukrainians Tomahawks’. Such blackmail only works when it’s backed by action”, - the expert added.
At the same time, the military analyst emphasizes that the transfer of these missiles is unlikely for technical reasons.
“This is primarily naval weaponry. The main launchers are sea-based. There are land-based versions, but even their transfer is unlikely — there’s already a queue for them in the US Army. They were only adopted in 2023. The US Army has priority. So even if the decision is made, it’ll take a long time to deliver, just like it was with the Abrams tanks”, - Lakiichuk noted.
The expert reminded that previous deliveries of American tanks also came with limitations.
“The Abrams we received were specially modified for Ukraine — the layer of depleted uranium in their composite armor was removed. Their combat capabilities were reduced. The same could happen with the Tomahawks”, - he explained.
Another factor that could influence the US decision is funding.
“Everyone has seen the US defense budget for this year. 500 million dollars may sound like a large amount, but two years ago it was several times higher. If this aid is to include a Tomahawk project, it’ll be difficult to implement. If done together with the Europeans — then it must be a three-way discussion”, - the analyst noted.
The military expert also emphasized that no Western weapon alone will become “miraculous”.
“There’s no ‘game changer’. The ‘wunderwaffe’ is the Ukrainian soldier. Our officers, our soldiers — that’s the superweapon we have. Everything else is just a supplement. Success depends not only on the hardware but on the tactics of its use”, - Lakiichuk stressed.
According to him, Ukrainian soldiers often demonstrate new capabilities of Western equipment to the West itself.