The administration of the president of the russian federation considers it most advantageous to end the war with Ukraine in the summer of 2026. This conclusion can be drawn from a speech by the curator of the internal political bloc of the kremlin administration, Sergey Kiriyenko, delivered to the leadership of the “United russia” party and quoted by russian media on May 5.
“If the peaceful resolution of the conflict occurs directly before the elections, then, according to sources, ‘United russia’ forecasts a mood close to euphoria, which they believe will benefit the party. But if the military operation ends, for example, six months before the elections, this will complicate the campaign for UR, ‘since the euphoria from the peaceful resolution of the conflict will have faded by the time of the elections, and the societal consolidation seen during the military operation—under which citizens preferred to support the government even if they had grievances—will dissipate’”, - writes RBC, citing participants of the meeting.
The next elections to the russian State Duma are scheduled for September 2026.
RBC also directly quotes Kiriyenko, who stated that if the military operation continues, the campaign scenario for “UR” is more or less clear, but “there is a risk of population fatigue: ‘In peaceful conditions, they may begin to voice their discontent’”.
Analyst Serhiy Harmash, who drew attention to this information, noted in an interview with the “My Ukraina” channel that three conclusions can be drawn from it.
First – the kremlin is planning, and considers it preferable, to end the war with a “peaceful settlement” in the summer of 2026. Not earlier!
Second – moscow acknowledges that the end of hostilities could come sooner, that is, at unfavorable times for them, regardless of the will of the russian leadership.
And third – the kremlin administration understands that the war will end in a “peaceful settlement” without achieving the declared goals of the “special military operation” even if it publicly claims otherwise.