1. A russian drone struck the civilian bulk carrier Royad Mammadov, sailing under the Turkish flag, which had left Izmail carrying Ukrainian corn for Ravenna, Italy. The vessel was 20 nautical miles from the Romanian coast, that is, in neutral waters and near the borders of NATO airspace. It sank. Ankara called for the safety of civilian shipping in the Black Sea to be guaranteed.
The strike in neutral waters on a vessel flying the flag of a NATO country raises the stakes on two fronts at once: it disrupts freight operations and drives up insurance premiums for vessels heading to Ukraine, while also drawing in Turkey, which until now has balanced between Kyiv and moscow. For Ukrainian agricultural exports, already hit by strikes on ports in the Odesa oblast, this means another reduction in shipments and a drop in purchase prices inside the country. In other words, it is a blow to foreign-currency earnings at a time when the government is already facing a 56-billion budget deficit for this year alone. Ankara could help curb the kremlin's aggression: will it limit itself to appeals, or move to enhanced sanitary and environmental inspections of russian shadow tankers?
2. The russian Finance Ministry published fresh data. Despite extremely expensive oil (Urals above $90), russia's oil and gas budget revenues fell by 17% over the first nine months. Moscow lowered its annual production forecast to a 17-year low.
The very high global oil price is no longer offsetting russia's losses from attacks on oil refineries and sanctions. Given that around 20% of russian tax revenues are still linked to the oil and gas sector, and the budget deficit in 2026 is expected to be around 3% of GDP (almost twice the planned level), Ukraine's long-range campaign is already affecting not only gasoline inside Muscovy but is also becoming one of the factors reducing the budgetary base for the war.
3. Russian aircraft dropped three KABs on Kharkiv. Six people were killed and 59 injured. The area affected by the fires reached approximately 15,000 square meters.
The problem of KABs remains separate from the problem of Shaheds and ballistic missiles. KABs with glide modules are launched from the territory of the Belgorod oblast, and intercepting them with existing air defense systems is practically impossible. The aircraft launching them must be shot down. Or the bases of russian tactical aviation must be attacked. If Trump wants Ukrainian attacks on russian oil refineries to stop, trading them for means of destroying russian aircraft would be acceptable to Kyiv.
4. Russian forces continued expanding the "gray zone" near Pokrovsk and Dobropillia and looking for weak points in the defenses of Kostiantynivka, clearing a path toward Kramatorsk.
The Pokrovsk–Dobropillia–Kostiantynivka link is built around one objective: the logistics of the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration. If pressure on Kostiantynivka continues to increase at the same pace, the issue of Kramatorsk's supply routes will become critical as early as this winter.
5. Ukrenergo reported new power outages in six regions: Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Odesa, and Kherson — due to russian strikes on critical infrastructure facilities.
Russia has begun its systematic campaign against the energy sector a month earlier than usual. And the strikes are now targeting not the main substations that we have learned to protect, but distribution networks and generation facilities in frontline regions, where restoration is constrained by the safety of repair crews. The strikes on the Odesa oblast are aimed at the ports and, together with strikes on the maritime corridor, are creating a blockade of exports. This hits both the population and the tax base, and therefore the budget for next year.
6. The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology published a poll according to which 53% of Ukrainians believe that Volodymyr Zelensky should limit himself to one presidential term and not run again.
The KIIS figure indicates that the mandate has been exhausted: society separates support for the state from support for a specific president.
7. The kremlin refused to comment on a New York Times report that U.S.-russia negotiations on ending the war are linked to a potential multibillion-dollar deal involving Lukoil's foreign assets.
This increases the likelihood that the information is true. If it is accurate, the peace negotiations initiated and currently promoted by the White House are in fact aimed not at peace in Ukraine, but at pursuing Trump's business interests at Ukraine's expense. This changes their essence and Kyiv's strategy for participating in them.