Russian elites may offer the West a change of power in exchange for sanctions relief — political analyst Horodnytskyi
Part of the russian business elite may be interested in a change of power in russia in order to secure the lifting of international sanctions and restore economic ties with the West. This opinion was expressed in a comment to OstroV by political expert and Doctor of Philosophy Andrii Horodnytskyi.
According to him, public signs of dissatisfaction among part of the russian elite with the kremlin's current course have been appearing more and more frequently in recent months.
"In my opinion, preparations for a possible change of power have been underway inside russia for quite some time. The Washington Post also wrote about similar developments (referring to reports that China is secretly preparing for a change of power in russia — editor's note). This indicates that such a scenario is indeed being considered", - Horodnytskyi said.
He believes that if a change of power occurs, the primary goal will not be to dismantle the political system but to preserve it.
"If changes do take place, the main objective of the russian elites will not be to destroy the current system of power but to preserve it. The only difference would be that, instead of the current ruling group, big business would assume the leading role", - the expert noted.
In his view, this explains the recent public statements made by certain representatives of russian business.
"They are not talking about Ukraine. They are interested in something else: obtaining security guarantees for themselves, securing the lifting of sanctions, restoring economic ties with the West, and effectively returning to normal international trade", - Horodnytskyi said.
At the same time, he believes that the United States could play a key role in this process.
"The United States remains the world's most influential country, so Trump's role is extremely important. russian elites hope that he will be able to influence both Europe and China and also help facilitate the lifting of sanctions", - the political analyst noted.
He did not rule out that, if the political situation in russia changes, its elites could offer the West an informal arrangement.
"I do not rule out that, over time, Trump may become completely disillusioned with putin. In that case, russian elites could offer the West a kind of deal: they ensure a change of power, and in return they expect the gradual lifting of sanctions. That is how I interpret the appearance of such publications in the Western press", - Horodnytskyi said.