According to assessments by Estonia’s security service, in 2025 russian factories produced more than 7 million shells, mortar rounds, and rockets, compared with 4.5 million in 2024. This is stated in Estonia’s 2026 intelligence report, Ukrainska Pravda writes.
Overall, since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, enemy ammunition production has increased 17-fold, mainly due to the construction of new production facilities.
The production structure in 2025 looked as follows: howitzer ammunition (122 mm, 152 mm, and 203 mm) — 3.4 million; mortar rounds (120 mm and 240 mm) — 2.3 million; ammunition for tanks and infantry fighting vehicles — 0.8 million; rockets for MLRS — 0.5 million.
In addition to domestic production, russia is actively importing ammunition. Since 2023, moscow has received 5–7 million shells from Iran and North Korea. According to intelligence data, ammunition from North Korea accounted for up to half of all shells fired by russia at Ukraine in the second half of 2025.
The purchase of this ammunition cost russia approximately 1 trillion rubles (10.6 billion euros) in 2025. At the same time, production costs remain low: for example, a 152 mm shell costs less than 100,000 rubles (about 1,050 euros), which is many times cheaper than Western 155 mm counterparts.
“For the kremlin, maintaining these stockpiles is almost certainly a critically important element of planning potential future conflicts… russia is setting long-term operational goals in the war against Ukraine. This confirms that the recent revival of rhetoric about peace talks is merely a tactic to buy time”, - the report says.
Earlier, the head of Germany’s Armed Forces Support Command, Lieutenant General Gerald Funke, stated that russia could attack NATO countries within two to three years. At the same time, NATO plans over the next two years to carry out large-scale rearmament on the border with russia and Belarus, stockpile significantly more weapons there, and create an uninhabited robotic zone. The Commander-in-Chief of Norway’s Armed Forces, General Eirik Kristoffersen, has also said that Oslo is preparing for a possible russian invasion.