Moscow is trying to disrupt negotiations pace after Geneva and bring back some of the already rejected “plan” points — political analyst Ihor Chalenko
Russia is deliberately slowing down the diplomatic process after Geneva and is seeking to adjust the course of negotiations in its own interests, including by returning to discussion some of the points that have already been rejected. Political analyst and head of the Center for Analysis and Strategies Ihor Chalenko said this in a comment to OstroV.
According to him, despite statements from skeptics, the negotiation process after Geneva is not “empty”, because work continues, and part of the updated version of the peace plan was accepted by the Ukrainian side.
“Ukraine has demonstrated constructiveness and readiness to continue working on the document. The problem lies elsewhere — in russia’s unwillingness to see any changes to the plan that was de facto proposed through the Dmitriev–Witkoff channel”, - Chalenko noted.
He emphasized that russia is trying to break the momentum that emerged after Geneva, doing so both through the publication of leaked conversations and through demonstrative statements by Peskov and Ryabkov about the ‘prematurity’ of talking about ending the war.
“This is direct evidence of attempts to disrupt the pace. And on top of this lies the internal struggle within russia itself — between the so-called systemic liberals, who want a gradual lifting of sanctions and an end to the war, and those who insist on continuing the so-called ‘SMO’”, - the expert explained.
According to him, the positions of Dmitriev and Ushakov were clearly weakened this week due to pressure from Lavrov, the Foreign Intelligence Service, and other security groups.
Despite this, Chalenko noted that the diplomatic track from Ukraine has not been stopped: communication continues with the participation of special envoy Driscoll, including contacts in Abu Dhabi. However, the delay in the process, in his opinion, is linked to the American factor.
“Trump decided to step into a new negotiation field. He removed the initial deadline and sent Witkoff to moscow again, and Driscoll to Ukraine. And here I see a risk: the attempt to return some of the already rejected points, arguing that otherwise russia won’t accept”, - the political analyst noted.
He emphasized that Ukraine found itself facing a difficult task — defending its own red lines, especially on the issue of security guarantees.
“Proposals like ‘let’s discuss guarantees after signing the agreement’ are absolutely unworkable. Ukraine insists on real security guarantees before any agreement is concluded. They must be based on preserving the defense forces and the participation of a coalition of willing states, including the United States”, - he added.
Ihor Chalenko also pointed out that the European Union has paused for internal coordination — in particular, on the issue of russian frozen assets. However, he predicts that these points will return after approval at the EU level.
“The peace plan must contain not only guarantees for Ukraine. Europe will also try to secure guarantees for its own security. And it is clearly insufficient to write that ‘russia will adopt a law on non-aggression against Europe’. This is laughable and has no practical value”, - the political analyst concluded.