The russian “summer operation” did not achieve its strategic goals, and the main objective — to capture the entire Donbas — remains unfulfilled. Now, the command of the russian army is preparing the next stage of the offensive, which may become an attempt to compensate for previous failures. This was stated in an interview with OstroV by the head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI, captain of the first rank in the reserves of the Ukrainian Navy, Pavlo Lakiichuk.
“The defense is holding — that’s a positive thing. The enemy is advancing — that’s a negative one. Overall, there’s no reason to say that there have been any radical changes in the enemy’s plans. Indeed, the summer operation, from the perspective of the attacking side, has failed. The resources allocated for its execution (and the main goal was to capture northwestern Donbas) have not yielded results. The resources were spent, but the tasks were not accomplished”, - noted the expert.
According to him, this forced the chief of the russian general staff, Valeriy Gerasimov, to replan the operation.
“That’s exactly what he said when he appeared on television: ‘We will continue the autumn offensive’. In other words, a new operation is being planned, resources are being determined, and it will be implemented”, - added Lakiichuk.
At the same time, according to the expert, there have been no fundamental changes in the enemy’s plans.
“One might have expected that when planning the new operation, the directions of the main strikes, timing, and priorities would change. But apparently, they decided not to bother much. The main directions of attack and objectives remain the same. At least for now, it’s clear that these are Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Kramatorsk, which connects from the north toward Sloviansk. This is the main battlefield, the main axis of the enemy’s efforts”, - emphasized Lakiichuk.
Separately, the expert drew attention to the situation on the southern frontlines.
“There are frequent statements that the second objective will be Zaporizhzhia — supposedly, they’ll start an offensive there as well. But it’s important to understand that they only have enough resources for one strategic offensive. If the russians, God forbid, manage to achieve their main objective in Donbas, they could shift their main efforts south”, - he noted.
According to the military analyst, the southern direction holds not only military but also political importance for the kremlin.
“The russians need to explain why the ‘primordially russian’ regions — Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — are still under Ukraine’s control. Therefore, this direction has both political and military significance for them. But until they complete their task in Donbas, they won’t redeploy forces there — that’s task number one”, - emphasized Pavlo Lakiichuk.