Putin plays ahead of the curve: the kremlin gives Trump a success story to avoid sanctions and preserve a communication channel – political analyst
Russia is using negotiations with Donald Trump as a tool to maintain influence and avoid new sanctions, offering him a "success story" in the form of a partial truce. This was stated in a comment to OstroV by political analyst and head of the Analytical Center "United Ukraine" Ihor Petrenko.
"Putin understands that Trump, so to speak, has reached a certain point of disappointment. They realize they need to offer something, something that trump could present as his victory – a 'success story', a win in the war. Send a signal that 'we’re making progress', that there’s already some achievement", - the expert said.
According to the political analyst, moscow deliberately made a partial concession, particularly in the form of the so-called air truce (which is being discussed by foreign media), to buy time and reduce the risk of a harsh response from Trump.
"What is russia’s calculation? They’re doing this – at the very least, just to have more substantive talks – and in doing so, they undermine Trump’s potential resolve to strike them with sanctions: on China, on India, to tighten things somewhere. Just to drag the process out even further. To a certain extent, that benefits them", - Petrenko explained.
He also emphasized that the kremlin is afraid of losing the communication channel through Witkoff – the person trump trusts and who promotes the idea of striking a deal with moscow.
"They realized that if they once again start talking about some 'big deal' between russia and the United States – someday, somewhere, after solving the Ukrainian issue on their terms – they’ll just burn their contact figure – Witkoff. He’s the one trump feels comfortable talking to. And he’s the one in a position to push trump toward making that deal", - he noted.
According to the expert, the meeting with putin itself will already be a win for the kremlin, whereas for trump, its success will depend on concrete outcomes.
"The meeting will definitely be a plus for putin. But as for Trump – that depends on the results and his next steps", - Ihor Petrenko summarized.
As previously reported, the kremlin stated that the meeting between putin and Trump has already been agreed upon for the coming days.