Massive strikes without a breakthrough at the front: military expert explains why putin is hitting cities with Shaheds
Massive russian attacks on Ukraine using Shahed UAVs are not just a tactical innovation but an element of a separate aerial strategic operation, the goal of which is to force Ukraine into capitulation without victory on the battlefield. This was stated in a comment to OstroV by Pavlo Lakiichuk, head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI" and retired captain of the Ukrainian Navy.
“Massive missile and air strikes can be part of a strategic offensive operation. It is aimed at creating conditions on the ground through air strikes for the successful advancement of troops”, - he explained.
At the same time, according to Lakiichuk, such strikes can also be an independent operation. The expert recalled the doctrine of General Douhet, who after World War I asserted that the goals of war could be achieved without victory on the battlefield, through the destruction of cities by air strikes.
“I can achieve the goals of war without victory on the battlefield. Give me, roughly speaking, 200 bombers, 20,000 tons of bombs — I’ll just bomb their cities. Later, this logic was partially realized in the U.S. nuclear strikes on Japan in 1945”, - the expert cited as an example.
In Lakiichuk’s assessment, russia is now moving toward implementing this very concept.
“When the russians see that their offensive operation is stalling, and the allocated resources and timing are not yielding results — putin decides to conduct a separate aerial strategic operation. Its main goal is to force Ukraine into capitulation by another means, not through victory at the front”, - he emphasized.
The expert recalled that in 2022–2023, russia already conducted a separate air terror campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and now the tactic has shifted, aiming for psychological and economic pressure.
“They’ve chosen a tactic of terror. And, in fact, putin confirms this. In response to Ukraine’s inquiries — when will you sit down at the negotiating table — he replies: Any day, as soon as you accept our terms, meaning Ukraine’s capitulation, we’re ready to sit down at the table so you can sign the relevant documents”, - Lakiichuk noted.