The Kremlin is preparing a military provocation in the Donbas, the purpose of which is to bring "Russian peacekeepers" into the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine. This opinion was expressed by representative of CADO from the IDPs in the TCG Serhiy Harmash, commenting on the information published today by the Eastern Human Rights Group on the preparation of militants in CADLO for military operations.
He stated that he did not see measures of a purely offensive nature in the list of actions voiced by the EHRG. "The delivery of building materials to strengthen positions, exercises and preparation for mobilizing a reserve is more like preparation for a defense, not an offensive. The delivery of ammunition, fuel and lubricants from Russia is also not an unambiguously offensive sign", - S.Harmash wrote on his Facebook.
However, the intensification of defense measures, in his opinion, may serve as a prologue to the military provocation that Russia is preparing for.
"Dissatisfied with the situation in N-4 (Western "proposals on clusters") and seeing that they are losing the initiative, the Russians are preparing a military provocation in the Donbas, which may become a pretext for the introduction of "Russian peacekeepers" into CADLO. Fearing that a provocation may trigger a counteroffensive by the AFU, they are preparing for defense. The purpose of the provocation and the introduction of "peacekeepers" is to create a new reality in the Donbas, which will make the German-French "proposals on clusters", unprofitable for Russia, no longer relevant, and will make it possible to preserve the conflict on the Abkhazian model (with "citizens of the Russian Federation" on the demarcation line)", - the representative of CADO in TCG writes.
The ultimate goal of impending provocation and the subsequent introduction of "Russian peacekeepers" is to reformat "the region, in fact, into a military base of the Russian Federation under the guise of depopulated "DNR"-"LNR". According to S.Harmash, all this will open the Kremlin the possibility of" resumption of hostilities at any moment Moscow needs".
"Since the scenario with Ukraine joining the "DNR-LNR" does not work out, and the geopolitical background becomes unfavorable, Moscow starts playing in the long run… Therefore, it is important to distinguish provocation from offensive and react adequately, without giving rise to the introduction of "peacekeepers", - he sums up.
"However, Putin does not need any triggers. Hitler did not need a real attack on the German radio station by the Poles to seize Poland, he did everything for them…", - Harmash reminds of the lessons of history.
As previously reported, on March 5, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak reported that "the proposal of our German and French partners regarding clusters or, I would say, logical steps, on the basis of which a roadmap for ending the war can be created, is ready". "This has been said. So we are waiting for a response from the Russian Federation", - he said.
Against this background, the Russian Federation will try to legitimize the issue of attracting Russian peacekeepers to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine. According to the press service of the Ukrainian delegation to participate in the Trilateral Contact Group, the Russian Federation is taking a number of measures aimed at revising the agreements previously reached through the OSCE SMM on Additional Measures to Strengthen the Ceasefire.
In particular, the actions of the Russian Federation are aimed at assessing the reaction of the international community to the possible participation of servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces in the JCCC as "…the only reliable way to facilitate the settlement of the conflict in eastern Ukraine".