Zelensky’s meeting with Abramovich indicates the search for new channels of communication with the kremlin – political scientist Andriy Horodnytskyi
After the trilateral communication format between Kyiv, moscow, and Washington effectively stopped working, Ukraine returned to a previously tested communication channel through russian businessman Roman Abramovich. This opinion was expressed in a comment to OstroV by Doctor of Philosophy and political expert Andriy Horodnytskyi.
According to him, the meeting between President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and Roman Abramovich is not something unusual, since the businessman acted as a mediator between the parties from the very first days of russia’s full-scale invasion.
“Communication through Trump has now stopped. The main reason is that this format simply did not work. It was Trump who came up with this trilateral communication and tried to implement it. Since it is not working now, either something new had to be invented or we had to return to the previous setup. And that is exactly what we did. Abramovich is a person who, from the very first days of the full-scale invasion, communicated with both our side and putin. So we simply returned to a mechanism that already existed”, - said Andriy Horodnytskyi.
The political expert believes that over the past period the balance of negotiating positions between the parties has changed, and the kremlin’s position no longer looks as strong as before.
“On the russian side, it is still the same putin, although his position may have weakened. I would even say it has weakened very significantly. And at the very least, we can now put forward somewhat different conditions”, - the expert noted.
Commenting on suggestions that non-public messages for the russian president may have been transmitted via Abramovich, Andriy Horodnytskyi was skeptical about such interpretations.
“Some people say that the letter that was delivered through Abramovich and the letter that was made public are two different letters. That putin personally received more information than was in the public version. I don’t know. I doubt it. It seems to me that if that were the case, it would already have been reported publicly”, - he emphasized.
According to the expert, the use of informal intermediaries is a common practice in international politics when it helps achieve results.
“We very often use different channels of communication through different people. These can be oligarchs, former officials, or someone else. If it works and benefits the state, then it does not really matter who exactly acts as the intermediary”, - Andriy Horodnytskyi explained.
At the same time, he stressed that at present the effectiveness of such a communication channel remains questionable, as no practical results have been observed so far.
“The main question is how effectively this channel can be used and what result it produces. So far, we do not see any results. Perhaps in the future it will play some role. But right now, as we can see, this channel is not leading to anything concrete”, - the political scientist said.
According to Andriy Horodnytskyi, the role of Abramovich himself in this process should not be overestimated, as he most likely only serves as a messenger between the parties.
“Abramovich basically acts as a courier or postal service. He comes, delivers the message, and leaves. I very much doubt that he tried to persuade putin about anything. That is definitely not his role. And it is unlikely that he would take on such authority himself”, - the expert concluded.