Russia may attempt to implement the Crimea and Donetsk scenario in the Baltic states: without tanks and under the guise of “self-determination” – military expert Ivan Stupak
Russia may resort to a hybrid escalation scenario in the Baltic states that does not involve a classic invasion, but is based on the experience of the annexation of Crimea and the events in Donbas. This was stated by military expert and former SBU officer Ivan Stupak in a comment to OstroV.
“For some reason, everyone assumes that russia must necessarily advance with tanks, aircraft, drones. That is possible. We do not know what is in the minds of the command, of Gerasimov, of putin, because the data may be distorted. But I am looking more at another scenario – the Crimea and Donetsk scenario”, - he noted.
According to the expert, this approach has already proven effective for russia in the past.
“Was Donetsk seized by tens of thousands of tanks and troops? No. These were people without insignia, without chevrons, who called themselves ‘militia’. They entered and took control of territories. And it is precisely this scenario, in my opinion, that may be used now as well”, - Stupak explained.
He described in detail a possible model for the development of events.
“If I had to act in such a situation, I would take 200–300 trained special forces soldiers, add former military personnel and people with combat experience to them, and bring them into the region without insignia. Then — at night they enter, seize administrative buildings, police, government bodies, block local administration, distribute weapons to supporters. And by the end of the day, the creation of some kind of ‘people’s republic’ is already announced”, - the expert said.
After that, according to him, the kremlin could quickly legalize the situation.
“Then putin introduces troops and invokes international law, claiming it is the right of a nation to self-determination. They say that some ‘nation’ has decided to create its own state. And within a few days, decisions are adopted in russia to include this territory into the russian federation and extend the ‘nuclear umbrella’ over it”, - Stupak noted.
The key element in such a scenario, he emphasizes, is the reaction of the West.
“The question is whether European countries will go to war with a nuclear state over a small city. Will they do it? That is a big question. After all, this can be presented as an internal process — as if local people came out and want a separate state. And will anyone fight against them?” - the expert said.
He added that the Baltic states themselves have long been aware of these risks.
“I have spoken with people from the Baltics, and even six years ago they said: ‘No one will fight for us. We’ll have to defend ourselves on our own’”, - Stupak noted.
At the same time, according to him, the likelihood of such a scenario depends on the overall situation.
“Everything here depends on how internally ready putin is for this. If he sees that the situation is developing in his favor — more oil revenues, a divided Europe, strengthening pro-russian forces — this may inspire him, and he will say: ‘That’s it, we can move forward’”, - he explained.