The negotiation process between Ukraine and russia was more of a political gesture than a real path to agreements. This opinion was expressed to OstroV by PhD and political expert Andrii Horodnytskyi, commenting on a publication by Financial Times about the possible failure of peace negotiations.
“I generally believe that whether the negotiation process has failed or not can only be discussed when there is some kind of final outcome to this war, when there will no longer be any need for it. For now, we continue to communicate in one way or another, because today negotiations are underway regarding POW exchanges. This means that the negotiation process continues”, - Andrii Horodnytskyi noted.
At the same time, the expert emphasized that there were actually no real negotiations about ending hostilities.
“As for a ceasefire, in fact it never existed, because what was supposedly a negotiation process was a farce, since everyone perfectly understood that no one was going to agree to it in any way. But let it be said that it continues in the format that currently exists”, - he explained.
According to Horodnytskyi, the negotiation track has now effectively been put on pause due to changes in the international agenda, in particular because of the war around Iran, which is distracting the attention of the U.S. president Donald Trump.
He also explained that Donald Trump’s strategy envisioned a different sequence of events: first a ceasefire in Ukraine, partial lifting of sanctions against russia, and the return of russian oil to global markets, after which – active actions against Iran.
“Trump’s logic would have been the following: first, there should be a ceasefire in Ukraine. Next – partial or full lifting of sanctions against the russian federation, the release of a large amount of oil onto the market. Then – the beginning of a special operation in Iran. In that case, the balance in the oil market would be different and it would not hit the United States so hard”, - Horodnytskyi explained.
However, according to him, this plan did not work. The expert emphasized that the negotiation process between russia and Ukraine had no real prospects from the very beginning.
“This negotiation process was actually dead from the very beginning. It was a show for Trump. And Trump realized this too late, and accordingly there were no results from it”, - Andrii Horodnytskyi noted.
In his opinion, real negotiations can begin only when russia is ready to sit down at the negotiating table in a situation of defeat.
“For now, it continues as it continues and in some format, until russia is ready to sit down for these negotiations already in a situation of actual defeat. But, unfortunately, we see other trends, because the situation in Iran makes russia more financially secure and its ability to conduct military operations increases”, - the expert concluded.