Russian winter offensive operation didn’t achieve its goals, and summer campaign’s scale will depend on resources – Pavlo Lakiichuk
After the failure of the winter strategic offensive operation, russia is preparing for a new stage of combat operations, however its scale will directly depend on the available resources and the kremlin’s decisions regarding mobilization. This was stated to OstroV by the head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI", reserve captain first rank of the Naval Forces of Ukraine Pavlo Lakiichuk.
"From a military point of view, it is obvious that the winter strategic offensive operation of the russians, like the previous summer campaign of 2025, did not achieve its goals. Even from the perspective of russian generals, it has failed", - the expert noted.
In this regard, the russian command faces a choice regarding further actions.
"Now the question arises for them – what to do next. Either determine the defensive line and the directions in which to continue the offensive, or switch to defense. Such an option is also possible. But, as I see it, they are more inclined to continue the offensive", - Lakiichuk said.
According to him, this concerns planning a new offensive operation, the parameters of which have not yet been finally determined.
"That is, we are talking about planning a new offensive operation. Its scale will depend on resources. They are already starting to save reserves, they do not want to burn them, they are pulling them back", - the expert explained.
He noted that a new troop grouping is now being formed, and the question of choosing the direction had until recently remained open.
"So, they are forming a new grouping. In which direction – until recently it was difficult to say: Donbas or the south. But the Defense Forces are gradually narrowing their space for choice", - Lakiichuk emphasized.
Separately, according to him, the question of the scale of the future campaign remains.
"If we proceed from the available resources, then the summer campaign will probably be limited. If they want to deploy a large-scale offensive, then they will have to look for additional resources – material and human", - he noted.
The expert emphasized that the problem of a shortage of personnel for russia is becoming increasingly relevant.
"How can the shortage of personnel be compensated? There are several options. Parallels can also be drawn with us. For example, we have statements about compensating the shortage with foreigners. How effective this is remains a matter of debate", - Lakiichuk said.
According to him, the russian side may also increase the number of mercenaries, for example from North Korea.
At the same time, a scenario of a new wave of mobilization is not excluded.
"Or indeed announce strict mobilization measures. We will see which option they will choose", - the expert concluded.