Russia failed to implement its key plan to encircle the grouping of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in Donbas, despite months-long fighting for Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in the Donetsk oblast. Pavlo Lakiichuk, head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI” and a retired Ukrainian Navy captain of the first rank, told OstroV about this.
According to him, the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration remains unconquered by russian troops, although this very sector could have become the key battle of the campaign.
The expert recalled that both in spring and in autumn the plan of the russian command remained unchanged. It involved an attempt from the south and the north to cut off the so-called Siversk salient, encircle the grouping of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in Donbas, or create a threat of encirclement, forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat and breaking the defense along a wide section of the front.
“Do you remember the so-called Dobropillia salient? It was a russian false start that clearly highlighted their plan”, - Lakiichuk noted.
According to the expert, under the plan of vladimir putin and russian generals, after the implementation of this plan the Ukrainian defense was supposed to “crumble like dominoes”. However, the months-long battle for Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad did not allow this scenario to be realized.
In fact, he emphasized, the forces and means that were supposed to be used for a further enveloping strike are once again being thrown into eliminating the Pokrovsk defensive node. In particular, this concerns units, including the main forces of the 51st army of russia, which instead of developing the offensive are forced to storm the same section over and over again.
A similar situation, according to Lakiichuk, is observed in the north as well, where a salient is also forming. As a result, a situation may arise in which formally the first task has been completed and the command demands further development of success, but there are no resources left for this.
“There are neither resources nor people. This, in fact, is the task of the Defense Forces of Ukraine — to deprive the enemy of offensive potential”, - the expert explained.
He stressed that at the tactical level Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are effectively a single front. This is one of the heaviest and bloodiest sections of combat operations with enormous losses on both sides.
According to him, russia’s task was not to capture individual settlements for the sake of reporting, but to destroy the node of resistance, secure its own flanks, and reach the rear of the Ukrainian grouping in the area of Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka with subsequent advancement toward Kramatorsk.
“They failed to achieve this”, - the expert emphasized.
He added that according to the russian plan such an operation was supposed to be implemented back at the beginning of December. Instead, rumors are now emerging about postponing the so-called “final solution to the Donbas question” from the New Year of 2026 to April 1.