Talks in Berlin are rather a “performance for Trump” than a real peace process — political analyst Andrii Horodnytskyi
The negotiations currently taking place in Berlin with the participation of Western partners have no real substantive content for achieving peace and are rather a political gesture to demonstrate a process, in particular for Donald Trump. This was stated in a comment to OstroV by Doctor of Philosophy and political expert Andrii Horodnytskyi.
“It is important to understand that what is happening now in Berlin is, to a large extent, a big and partial performance for Trump. Because a large number of points simply do not suit us”, - the expert emphasized.
Horodnytskyi draws attention to the fact that the so-called negotiation plan was effectively prepared in moscow, and Ukraine is now forced merely to try to adapt it to its own realities.
“This can be seen from the fact that the so-called plan for the visit was effectively written in moscow. And, accordingly, we have to put up with it, we have to correct it as much as possible and adapt it to our realities. At the same time, there is a huge number of demands from Ukraine which, I am sure, will not be accepted”, - he noted.
The political expert emphasized that the key resistance to Ukrainian demands will come precisely from russia, not the United States.
“For the Americans, essentially, it does not matter what we demand there, but the russians will dig in. They are already stating that they will not make any compromises regarding their ‘five regions’. Ryabkov said this directly today”, - Horodnytskyi explained.
In his conviction, such a position by moscow makes it impossible to sign any substantive agreements.
“And here we can state that this effectively puts an end to the signing of any agreements. What we have been drafting for weeks now will carry no weight for the russians”, - the expert noted.
He emphasized that the only factor that can force russia to reckon with Ukraine’s position remains tough external pressure.
“And for this to matter to them, they need to be squeezed as hard as possible — both economically and militarily”, - Horodnytskyi stressed.
According to him, Ukraine’s participation in the Berlin talks is rather demonstrative in nature and is intended to show Kyiv’s readiness for dialogue with the West.
“What is happening in Berlin should be viewed exclusively as a signal: we are ready to meet Trump halfway, we are ready for any negotiations, we are even moving ourselves toward certain compromises — up to refusing or postponing our accession to NATO”, - the expert noted.
At the same time, according to him, the current stage of negotiations allows Ukraine to better understand the real content of the proposed security guarantees.
“Very interesting nuances have begun to sound regarding NATO’s Article Five, which could be applied to Ukraine, but in a bilateral format. That is, it is not a full-fledged Article Five, but something modeled on it”, - the expert noted.
Horodnytskyi summed up that the current consultations are not final and do not create a foundation for real peace, but they allow Ukraine to build its own positions for the future.
“All this forces us to continue working and to build certain bases on which we will be able to promote our own interests when russia is truly ready to sit down at the negotiating table. For now, this is not happening”, - he concluded.