"AFU’s voluntary withdrawal from the Donetsk oblast would open the way for russia to Kharkiv and Dnipro": political analyst Matvienko on the risks of negotiation scenarios
The Ukrainian authorities are forced to consider all possible scenarios within the negotiation process, but the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the territory of the Donetsk oblast would create critical conditions for national security. Political analyst Kostiantyn Matvienko stated this to OstroV, commenting on the discussions around potential concessions within negotiations with the United States and russia.
According to him, a possible decision to withdraw from Donbas is incompatible with Ukraine’s long-term interests.
“If this is a responsible, serious government, then it cannot ignore any scenario that has some probability. But we know that this is extremely dangerous in terms of the next war. The russians directly say they will not leave Ukraine alone. Meaning, this would essentially open the road for them to Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia. This is very dangerous”, - Matvienko emphasized.
The political analyst noted that even despite the difficult situation at the front, a significant portion of Ukrainian soldiers are categorically opposed to abandoning key settlements of Donetsk oblast.
“Judging by what I know about the mood in the Armed Forces — at the lower and middle levels — despite the incredible hardship, despite the problem of unauthorized withdrawal of units, nevertheless, a significant part of the motivated defenders is against leaving the Kramatorsk–Kostiantynivka agglomeration. Even though only ruins remain there. Therefore, it will be extremely difficult for Zelensky to agree to this. A very difficult situation”, - he said.
Assessing the nature of current international contacts on a possible settlement, Matvienko stressed that it is not a matter of equal peace negotiations.
“This is not negotiations. This is not a mechanism of communication between two equal sides. This is an attempt by the United States, in alliance and collusion with the russian federation, to force Ukraine into capitulation. After capitulation, peace also comes — but it is an extremely dangerous peace in terms of the subsequent war. We have already seen how the Budapest Memorandum ended”, - the expert concluded.