“This will push the kremlin toward further aggression”. If putin is given all of Donbas, he won’t stop — political analyst Fesenko Agreements on a possible end to the war after the Armed Forces of Ukraine withdraw from the entire Donetsk oblast will have nothing to do with real peace. This is merely a tactical move by the kremlin, aimed at pressure and further demands on Ukraine. Ukrainian political analyst and director of the Center for Political Studies “Penta” Volodymyr Fesenko told this to OstroV.
“Foreign media write that putin demands the entire Donetsk oblast and allegedly might agree to freeze the front line after that. But if the Donetsk and part of Luhansk oblasts are given up voluntarily — it will not lead to peace. It’s not even a condition for peace, but merely a temporary ceasefire”, - the expert emphasized.
According to him, such a “pause” will only become a trap for Ukraine.
“The next step will be putin immediately reminding that russian demands also include Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, the demilitarization and ‘denazification’ of Ukraine. If Ukraine shows readiness to make concessions, russia will put forward new, even harsher demands”, - Fesenko noted.
The political analyst is convinced that the voluntary transfer of part of Donbas will only push the kremlin toward further aggression.
“To believe this would lead to the end of the war is naïve. It will only be putin’s maneuver. If he senses Ukraine’s weakness, he’ll try to press on further”, - he explained.
“In the maximal scenario, putin seeks to restore control over all of Ukraine. But understanding that this is impossible for now, he is ready to play for time — to conduct both war and negotiations simultaneously”, - the expert added.
Fesenko also noted that there is another possible scenario discussed among experts — the war could drag on indefinitely.
“If in a year or a year and a half putin does manage to fully capture Donbas or part of Zaporizhzhia oblast, he could declare: ‘We fought for Donbas, we reclaimed it — the goal has been achieved’. And formally announce the end of the war. But that’s just a hypothesis”, - said the political analyst.
“The opposite may also happen: if the russians fail to capture all of Donbas, the front stabilizes, and the internal situation in russia begins to worsen — then talks about ending the war could start sooner”, - Volodymyr Fesenko concluded.