“Putin continues escalation”. The kremlin wants to convince Trump to put pressure specifically on Kyiv – Andrii Horodnytskyi
After vladimir putin’s return from China, russia sharply increased shelling deep into Ukraine and even allowed itself provocations against Poland. At the same time, kremlin rhetoric about possible negotiations almost disappeared from the information field. These processes are interconnected and explained both by Donald Trump’s mistakes and Beijing’s interests. Political scientist Andrii Horodnytskyi stated this in an interview with OstroV.
“Trump built communication with putin incorrectly and gave him the opportunity to take the steps he is taking, of course also with Xi Jinping’s blessing. We clearly remember the information about how Wang Yi said that the war in Ukraine is beneficial to China. And that is indeed the case, more precisely – the continuation of this war”, - Andrii Horodnytskyi said.
According to him, Beijing benefits from the fact that the US is forced to focus resources not on the Indo-Pacific region, but on the war in Europe.
“It diverts all the forces of the United States of America, which should have been concentrated on the Indo-Pacific region, on the issues of China, and instead they are occupied with Ukraine and Europe. That is indeed the case. At the moment, russia can afford escalation. At least for now, because later it will be more difficult”, - he explained.
The political scientist emphasized that the current strategy of the kremlin is to create pressure on Kyiv and psychological pressure on Washington.
“They want to reach a certain peak, to show that they will not back down, and to morally squeeze Ukraine. In this way they are trying to convince Trump that the pressure should be not on russia, but on Ukraine – this way it will be easier to end the war. russia’s logic right now is exactly this”, - Andrii Horodnytskyi noted.
At the same time, he pointed out that it is incorrect to speak of a direct “blessing” from Beijing.
“To say that Xi blessed putin to intensify the war is wrong. Hypothetically, it’s possible: like, radicalize the situation, you’ll have more chances to get what you want. But putin has few options. The weaker he acts at the front, the fewer chances he has to get a ceasefire on his terms. The logic is simple. It benefits both Xi and putin. To say that Xi is pushing him – that’s difficult. But that he does not object – that’s 100%”, - Horodnytskyi emphasized.
The political scientist also commented on the gradual change in Ukrainian rhetoric regarding China, particularly after public statements by President Volodymyr Zelensky.
“In general, everything is complicated with China. First, it is our largest trading partner. Second, we don’t know how to build relations correctly. Some Ukrainian politicians still believe that we can switch to cooperation with China. It doesn’t work that way. You always have to choose. And in reality China is our enemy”, - the expert noted.
He explained that Ukraine’s economic weight for Beijing is negligible, but diplomatically Kyiv can demand greater clarity.