The russians continue their offensive operation in eastern Ukraine and are preparing a regrouping with a change of plans – military expert Pavlo Lakiichuk
Russia has concentrated its forces in the Kostiantynivka direction, trying to encircle the agglomeration from three sides. The fall of this hub could automatically lead to the loss of Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk. Pavlo Lakiichuk, head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI", reserve captain of the Ukrainian Navy, told OstroV about this.
"The russians continue their offensive operation in eastern Ukraine. Obviously, they are preparing a certain regrouping with a change of plans, but so far, based on what is happening, the issue of changing the main directions of strikes is not even on the table. That is, as I and a number of other experts see it, this is a strategic offensive by the enemy with the goal of capturing our territories in the northwest of the Donetsk oblast. We are talking about the Kostiantynivka–Druzhkivka–Kramatorsk–Sloviansk agglomeration. This is a key area, the concentration of main forces, important both tactically and operationally-tactically", - he emphasized.
According to Lakiichuk, the russians are trying to cover Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad from the north, and it is precisely there that the most dramatic events are unfolding.
"Our defense forces in this sector are conducting active defense with counterstrikes and counterattacks, inflicting losses on the enemy. But it is difficult to say that the result will be quick and unambiguous", - he explained.
The military expert noted that the russian command does not fully understand how events will unfold, which is why it continues to concentrate and regroup forces south and southwest of Pokrovsk.
"If our defense forces manage to localize these attempts at an offensive, then most likely the russians will decide on frontal assaults on the agglomerations — of course, if they have enough strength and resources", - he noted.
Lakiichuk called the most advantageous option for the russian troops the encirclement of the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad defense hub in order to surround a large grouping from the flanks and encircle one of the largest Ukrainian formations.
"It is also important that Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad no longer plays the role of flank cover for our forces in the Druzhkivka direction, as it did before the enemy intercepted the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka highway. This indicates an intensification of their actions in the Kostiantynivka direction", - he clarified.
"We are not even talking separately about the Toretsk or Chasiv Yar directions. In fact, we are seeing an attempt to advance on Kostiantynivka from three sides. The russians are confident that sooner or later they will achieve success. This is also evidenced by their activity north of the Lyman direction. Their concept is that the fall of Kostiantynivka will automatically lead to the loss of Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk. They are convinced that strengthening our defense only delays the inevitable, but in any case, they will try to push our forces out", - the expert emphasized.
At the same time, according to him, the russians have already begun an offensive in the Lyman direction, trying to break through in the Sloviansk area.
"Then our entire southern flank will be under threat", - Pavlo Lakiichuk summed up.