"Putin will see this as weakness": military expert Pavlo Lakiichuk explains why a truce this year is unlikely
Attempts by the Ukrainian political leadership to achieve a temporary ceasefire may be perceived by the kremlin as a sign of weakness, which, in turn, would only provoke a new wave of aggression. This assessment was given in a comment to OstroV by the head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”, retired navy captain of the Ukrainian navy Pavlo Lakiichuk.
"Our political leadership used to say we'd be drinking coffee in Yalta — as if it were a done deal. And now, for some reason, no one is talking about victory as a war strategy at all", - he noted.
According to the expert, this is directly linked to recent statements by Donald Trump: "This, by the way, correlates with Trump’s remarks: show how you’re advancing. Where are your trump cards? Well, if we’re not set on victory, then imagine how not Trump, but putin, is thinking".
In Lakiichuk’s opinion, the kremlin doesn’t see signals about a truce as a desire for peace, but as a show of weakness: "When putin sees that Zelensky and all of Ukraine’s military-political leadership are channeling efforts into reaching a truce, a temporary ceasefire — then, from the perspective of putin’s generals, from putin’s own view, we are setting aside our position. We supposedly want to show Trump how peace-loving we are, but putin sees it this way: Ukraine is done — has no resources to continue defending. Ukraine is begging everyone for a truce because it’s over for them", - the expert emphasized.
In this situation, according to moscow’s logic, the next step is obvious.
"What, according to the logic of putin’s generals, should they do? Finish it off. That’s a direct quote, basically, from putin, lavrov, peskov — finish it off. Meaning, strike as hard as possible so everything collapses completely", - Lakiichuk explained.
In conclusion, the expert stated: "Will there be such a truce? I think not".