Witkoff allowed for a meeting between Zelensky and putin in the next three weeks, believing that the issue of territories could be resolved there. “We very much believe in this meeting, we think that partly we tried to resolve all other issues and then leave the issue of territories to the leaders. Yes, we have a lot of work on territories, we need to consider all the different concepts, there are many different options to think about”, - he said on February 24 during his online participation in the YES meeting.
Trump, echoing his special envoy, told Zelensky on February 25 that he would like to end the war within a month. That is, logically, a week after the summit of putin and Zelensky expected by the White House. It turns out that Trump allows not only the meeting of the leaders of the warring countries itself, but also that they will make mutual compromises…
In turn, in moscow and Kyiv, statements are being made that are opposite in their logic. Zelensky says that the issue of territories can only be resolved at a personal meeting with putin. Accordingly, he does not expect the Donbas issue to be resolved during delegation negotiations. And the kremlin claims that such a meeting makes sense only if the delegations agree on this issue and the presidents only need to formalize the reached agreement. At the same time, it is obvious that resolving the issue of territory, which each side considers its own, is possible not simply with political will, but with the willingness to take political responsibility for the “loss” of “its” territory. And for putin, taking such a step is not at all the same as for Zelensky.
At the same time, both Kyiv and moscow are increasing military resources and showing less and less sensitivity to Trump. Zelensky publicly stated that the pressure from the White House on him is unfair. And moscow sent a tanker with “humanitarian” diesel fuel to the shores of Cuba, challenging U.S. sanctions and the energy blockade of the island imposed by them.
In general, the prospect of actually reaching an agreement on Donbas is still very illusory. And there are no prerequisites for it to materialize. For this to happen, at least one of the parties must experience something that will force it to take a step that it currently considers unacceptable. But we do not observe anything like that. Then where did Trump’s maximalist optimism come from? After his “24 hours to end the war”, this question becomes rhetorical. It seems that the American president still does not understand that the kremlin’s ultimatum demand for the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and President Zelensky’s categorical refusal of this is far from being a matter of territories!
The time has not come yet
The kremlin is deliberately putting forward a demand on Donbas that is initially unacceptable for Kyiv, because it does not yet see the need to make compromises. For now, the kremlin’s task is to continue the negotiations themselves, not to achieve a realistic result in them. Moscow needs negotiations to avoid new U.S. sanctions and to continue “buying” the Trump administration with business fairy tales about “12 trillion”. During this time, moscow hopes to expand the territory of occupation, increase Trump’s pressure on Zelensky, and reduce Ukraine’s internal resources (energy and psychological). That is, in moscow’s understanding, the time for concessions on its part has not come yet, “and may never come”.
Objectively, negative trends in resource support for military operations have already formed for the russian federation. This includes the level of human losses, the state of the economy, and the growth of geopolitical risks. However, they are not yet critical. The kremlin can drag out real negotiations until summer, when the threat of losing its super-weapon—the sole power of Trump in the U.S.—arises. Already with the start of the congressional election campaign, Trump will have to do not what he wants or what he promised putin in Anchorage, but what his party needs to increase electoral points. And then the pressure will have to be applied not to Zelensky, but to moscow. If Trump loses control of the Republicans in at least one chamber of Congress, then his “peacekeeping” participation in the war between Ukraine and russia will most likely move into the stage of purely supplying Kyiv with weapons purchased with European money. That is, moscow’s chances of forcing Kyiv into peace on its terms, that is, from a position of a winner, will significantly decrease, as will the chances of “achieving the goals of the so-called special military operation”. But for now, there is hope for Trump and the “spring-summer campaign”.
Ukraine also currently has no objective reasons to make concessions that are unacceptable for itself. Both the military and geopolitical situation are developing into positive trends for Kyiv and also give it time and opportunity for a diplomatic game. Zelensky is also interested in delaying the “deal” so that negative trends in russia intensify and weaken its negotiating positions. The increased pace of mobilization in Ukraine and the “War Plan” published on the day of the fourth anniversary of russian aggression by Defense Minister Fedorov confirm this. In Kyiv, they understand that strategically time is no longer working against Ukraine, but against putin.
However, the situation may change if, for example, European funding stops. Or if the flows of weapons sold by the United States are redirected to other regions. But for now, Europe is interested in Ukraine continuing to shed its blood, weakening russia, while American arms manufacturers are interested in selling specifically to Europeans so that they do not rush to revive their own defense industry.
Donbas of discord. It’s not about territories
Therefore, there is simply no sense for Kyiv to agree to surrender Donbas. On the contrary, the holding of Donbas by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is one of the main factors pushing russia toward real negotiations on a compromise basis. If Zelensky agrees now to voluntarily withdraw the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Donbas, then this will no longer be negotiations, but simply the signing of a capitulation. Since peace on the terms of one side is exactly that — capitulation. That is, in such a case, Kyiv will de facto recognize its defeat in the war and moscow’s victory. But objectively, Zelensky has no reasons to take such a step.
Moreover, he understands that having received a ceasefire on its own terms, nothing will restrain victorious moscow from putting forward even harsher demands, while the “defeated” will no longer have the ability or resources to resist it. Nor will Ukraine have the support of Western partners. What would be the point for them to support the defeated? If Ukrainians stop shielding Europe with themselves, Europeans will start spending money on their own defense.
Even worse is that russia’s victory will strengthen putin’s regime and the geopolitical ambitions of the empire. Which is strategically deadly for Ukraine. After a “capitulatory peace”, only “woe to the vanquished” awaits us. Because Kyiv will thus itself cement its presence within russia’s sphere of influence. Therefore, the choice is small: either peace on compromise terms (for this, time is needed to implement Fedorov’s plan), or defeat in the war. All scenarios today come down to these two options.
So, the surrender of Donbas may become the political death of Ukraine as a subject of geopolitics. And as we see, the issue is not about territories, but about the fact that peace on the terms of one side is capitulation, with all the ensuing political consequences. It is a pity that Trump does not understand this. Or perhaps, on the contrary, he does understand, but really wants the “12 trillion”?
By Serhii Harmash, editor-in-chief of OstroV