Reflecting on the likelihood of the war being stopped by russia (regardless of the conditions), one must first answer the question: is the war a problem for putin?
No, through the war he is solving a bunch of his political problems. In particular, this is the ultimate concentration of power, the absence of any opposition whatsoever, the justification of economic problems for russians, the consolidation of russia’s population around the authorities to fight an external enemy, and most importantly – the elevation of his geopolitical status.
The problem for putin is not the war. The problem for putin, which forced him to ask Trump for a meeting in Alaska, is the economic incapacity of the russian federation to continue the war further. The state of the russian economy is forcing moscow to cut the military budget, which threatens both the loss of the war and social instability if it continues.
And the reason for such a state of the economy is the sanctions and the low pace of the russian army’s capture of Ukrainian lands. That is, putin’s capabilities do not match the time he has to achieve his goal.
Accordingly, putin is not interested in peace, he is interested in lifting sanctions and evading the threat of new ones. He needs a weakening of economic pressure while maintaining or accelerating the pace of military operations. He cannot increase his capabilities. That means he is left with dragging out time…
How can this be achieved? By launching a “peaceful” negotiation process without a ceasefire. It is precisely the refusal of a truce during negotiations that indicates that putin’s goal now is not to end the war, but to create economic conditions for its continuation. And he will not limit himself to the Donetsk oblast.
One could have believed that he would be satisfied with it if there were a real possibility of legal recognition by Ukraine of russian ownership of the occupied territories. But such a possibility does not exist and putin knows this. Accordingly, his initial calculation is not for peace, but for a temporary truce, which will be broken as soon as he can secure the economic capacity to wage war.
At the same time, the presence of foreign peacekeepers on the territory of Ukraine is unlikely to stop him, since Ukraine for him is only a transit point, a springboard on the path to war with the West. Remember the “root causes” that he outlined in December 2021 – the eastward expansion of NATO. He does not need territory, he needs geopolitical influence equal to that of the USSR.
Ukraine alone cannot solve this problem. Moreover, NATO has become even closer to russia, the whole world has seen the low effectiveness of the russian army, moscow has lost the largest and most profitable energy market – the European one. Such results of the war are unlikely to satisfy putin, even if he gets the Donetsk oblast.
Especially since it also became clear to him the weakness of NATO, the heterogeneity of the alliance, its inability and unwillingness to engage in a real war. Such knowledge is too great a temptation to eliminate the “root cause” by launching aggression precisely against one of the NATO countries, most likely the Baltic states.
In addition, it must be taken into account that the war in Ukraine is essentially a proxy war of China with the United States. The words of Wang Yi that China cannot allow putin to lose, because then the US will direct its resources at China – confirm this. Not to mention the colossal economic benefits for Beijing from the dumping trade conditions with russia. Accordingly, China will continue to encourage in putin the desire to realize his dissatisfaction with the results of the war.
However, if it even gets to these “results”. By putting forward in advance impossible conditions to Ukraine regarding the transfer of unconquered territories, putin is clearly betting not on a truce, but on dragging out the negotiation process. During which ever new conditions from moscow will arise.
Moreover, russia itself made the fulfillment of its main demands impossible when it annexed the occupied Ukrainian territories. This led to the impossibility of transferring them to russia under lease, or holding a nationwide referendum on them, which is the only mechanism for Kyiv to change its borders.
So, the “peace negotiation process” that began in Alaska and continued in Washington a priori does not serve the ultimate goal of any side in the conflict, starting with China and the russian federation and ending with Ukraine and the EU. It also does not serve the interests of the USA, although Trump, obsessed with the idea of a Nobel Prize, does not understand this.
In fact, through this “peaceful” process on moscow’s terms, without a ceasefire, Trump is creating opportunities for putin to continue the war. And the negotiations may last for a very long time. At least until the russians seize the ruins of the Donetsk oblast. And it’s not certain that, having received such a foothold for continuing the offensive, putin will not demand for the russian federation some other territories as well, again and again…
Maybe not immediately, but in a year or two, he will take advantage of the position of the victor, who has regained strength and is ready to pursue his real goals. It’s obvious to everyone that putin’s goal was not Donbas. Otherwise, why would he send troops to Kyiv?...
If Trump truly wanted peace, he would have chosen a tactic that had already proven effective by forcing putin to request negotiations in Alaska. That is – pressure, primarily economic. Instead, Trump chose a tactic of appeasement and encouragement of the aggressor. At the same time, his words about being ready to send American troops to Ukraine are nothing more than words, and he will never do it, shifting the burden of the consequences of putin’s inevitable violation of peace agreements onto the Europeans. Remember how Trump convinced everyone that by signing the agreement on Ukrainian minerals, the USA would become interested in defending its own property in Ukraine? For some reason, as soon as the desired result was achieved, those words were immediately forgotten…
In general, the whole logic of events shows that we are facing long and difficult negotiations with russia and the US, which will drag on for about another year. And they will end with a temporary truce, for two or three years. And no "security guarantees" will prevent this. Simply because putin does not consider the "guarantors" a real threat to himself. Especially when China stands behind him. Well, russia will, for example, shoot a battalion of French troops in Ukraine. And what then, will Paris declare war on moscow? It’s a rhetorical question.
Either the US and Europeans, together with Ukrainians, will inflict defeat on russia in Ukraine (both by economic and military means), forcing putin to stop. Or an attempt to buy him off with Ukrainian territories will lead to a repetition of the Finnish scenario, the russian-Ukrainian war, stopped without eliminating the “root causes” of the conflict (either for Kyiv or for moscow), will continue in another, more global military clash.
Moreover, the option that russia proposes and the US promotes, in the conditions of forming a new world order, makes this global conflict inevitable. Because as long as there is no geopolitical balance, each superpower will try to bend the world to itself. And since there is a risk of thermonuclear war, they will do it by using small countries and at the expense of small countries. And Ukraine will not be the only one to suffer in this struggle of titans.
Here there is only one way out: to defeat the dragon – one must become the dragon oneself…
By Serhii Harmash, editor-in-chief of OstroV