Previously, it was repeatedly proven - Kremlin masters express secret thoughts through their vassals to look at the subsequent reaction of the society.
Kadyrov is recently such an angry mouthpiece-public crier inside Russia and Zakharchenko in Donbass. Apparently, Luhansk and Plotnitsky are not in favor in the Kremlin, not without a reason summary of the ATO headquarters begins with the words - in Luhansk region, as before, it is calm. All escalation comes from Donetsk militants. And announcement of the Kremlin blanks is also entrusted to Donetsk.
Apparently by orders from Moscow, the DPR leader Zakharchenko explained how the Moscow ups see the fulfillment of the Minsk agreements in the current year. Video of his press conference is interesting from this point of view.
Thus, Putin decided to announce the ultimatum.
In particular, Zakharchenko said that they were going to hold local elections for SDDR according to own rules this year in April. Moreover, it is presented as the fulfillment of the Minsk agreements but not otherwise. Therefore, text is needed in this case.
The document, which Zakharchenko quoted, is called "Set of measures on the fulfillment of the Minsk agreements". He really signed it, but it should be noted that if next to the names of other persons who signed the documents there was their status, there was only their name next to the signatures of Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky. It means they were like on their own, they acted from their name and nothing more.
The first thing to say when reading and interpretating the document above that neither in it nor in any other documents signed within the framework of the Minsk negotiations, the phrases "Donetsk People's Republic", "Luhansk People's Republic" or the abbreviation "DPR" and "LPR" are mentioned. Such structures do not exist for the world, in official relations, especially for legal documents of international nature, they exist only in the imagination and in the use of militants and the Kremlin at the level of the internal slang.
Accordingly, statements, comments or other actions by Zakharchenko as a kind of "head of the DPR" or on behalf of the "DPR" in legal terms are equal to zero and equivalent to the fact as if the terrorists were trying to have conversations with the security forces not on their behalf but on behalf of the captured hostages.
Now specifically on what was said at the press conference and recorded on video.
Zakharchenko began with the reading paragraph 9 of Set of measures. Here is the paragraph in full.
"Restoration of full control over the state border from the side of Ukrainian government throughout the conflict zone, which should begin on the first day after the local elections and be completed after comprehensive political resolution (local elections in some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions on the basis of the Law of Ukraine and constitutional reform) till the the end of 2015, in case of the fulfillment of the paragraph 11 - in consultation and agreement with the representatives of separate regions of Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the framework of the Trilateral Contact group".
As the following paragraphs refers to paragraph 11, the text of the paragraph should be also given.
"Implementation of constitutional reform in Ukraine with new Constitution entering into force till the end of 2015 and involving decentralization as a key element (taking into account the characteristics of separate districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, agreed with the representatives of these regions), as well as the adoption of the permanent law on the special status of certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, in accordance with the measures referred to in note [1], tlil the end of 2015. (See note)."
It has references once again, so we cannot do without notes.
"Note:
Such measures in accordance with the Law "On special procedure of local government in some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions" include the following:
- Exemption from punishment, harassment and discrimination of individuals associated with the events that took place in certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
- Right to language self-determination;
- Participation of local authorities in the appointment of heads of prosecutors’ bodies and courts in some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
- Possibility for the central executive authorities to conclude agreements with the relevant local authorities on economic, social and cultural development of separate districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
- State shall support social and economic development of separate districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
- Assistance from the central government to cross-border cooperation in separate districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions with regions of the Russian Federation;
- Creation of people's militia groups by decision of local councils in order to maintain public order in separate districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
- Powers of deputies of local councils and officers elected at the early elections, appointed by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine by this law, cannot be early terminated."
After reading paragraph 9, Kharchenko claims that Ukraine is obliged to agree with him and Plotnitsky as with the heads of "republics" all its actions and laws, but it does not, therefore, the DPR and LPR will act according to their understanding.
However, analysis of the above given provisions shows that this document is not about pseudo formations called "DPR" and "LPR" but on separate districts of the two Ukrainian regions - Donetsk and Luhansk (abbreviated - SDDR and SDLR), which, from the point of view of Ukrainian legislation international law, remain Ukrainian territories.
At the same time, Zakharchenko does not consider even himself to be representative of separte districts of Donetsk region, he positioned himself as the head of the occupied territories, self-proclaimed "DPR" and he stresses all the time that Ukraine is something separate, something he does not obey.
Let’s consider, for example, such statement by Zakharchenko "I see Ukraine structure, a neighboring state is the key word - I propose Ukraine to separate centrally, as the Czech Republic and Slovakia did." That is, a priori, he already acknowledged "DPR", not even SDDR, as a separate independent state and himself, of course, the head of state. If we take the basis of this statement, the Minsk agreements don’t not provide agreement of Ukraine's actions and laws with "the head of the neighboring state", even if by this not only incomprehensible "DPR" is meant but really independent state Russia, although de- facto this is what Putin is seeking.
Next Zakharchenko declares - if Ukraine does not want, we will hold elections. In this phrase, every word is an avowed cynicism.
According to the Set of measures, elections in SDDR and SDLR should be conducted by Ukraine according to its laws. This means that the Verkhovna Rada will make the decision to hold elections but not the leader of "the DPR". Before, the parliament could call an election,at first, paragraph 10 should be carried out there, the text of which is mentioned above - namely, demilitarization must be carried out in SDDR and SDLR, they must return to the legal field of Ukraine, and, most importantly, Ukraine needs to regain full control over its national borders.
And here is another interesting point – how the concept of a state border of Ukraine is interpreted in the Kremlin. Zakharchenko twists around and explains the position inspired by the Kremlin - Ukraine controls its state border fully, because it passes through the contact line with the "DPR".
Even Russia agrees that SDDR and SDLR are Ukrainian territory, which is part of Ukraine. In addition, the state border under international law is immutable and there is a special procedure for the delimitation and demarcation of state borders. But the Kremlin, as well as Zakharchenko, tries to crumple this question or better keep it quiet.
And, most importantly, they do not withdraw the troops and weapons from the occupied part of Donbass, disarm militants, that makes it impossible to hold fair elections there.
By the way, in accordance with paragraph 12 of the Set of measures, elections in SDDR and SDLR will be held "on the basis of the Law of Ukraine" and it is separately noted that "the elections will be conducted in compliance with the relevant standards of the OSCE and monitored by the OSCE ODIHR". Obviously, if elections are held in accordance with the "DPR" rules as Zakharchenko announced, we cannot talk about fulfillment of the Minsk agreements, the world will not recognize such elections, the "elected" can not be considered legitimate representatives of SDDR and SDLR.
According to the essence of the Set of measures, representatives of SDDR and SDLR are understood as formally and legally elected local authorities, who the population of these districts will elect in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation. At the moment there are none of them and the Kremlin together with militants hinder holding of elections in every way.
It should also be noted that, for example, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov after negotiations with John Kerry said that they agreed to fulfill Minsk agreements in full. However, the Kremlin and Zakharchenko always omit and ignore the existence of paragraph 10, which indicates such an interesting requirement:
"Withdrawal of all foreign armed forces, military equipment and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under the supervision of the OSCE. Disarmament of all illegal groups."
If this paragraph is fully fulfilled, then yesterday the Russian military and the Russian weapons were supposed to be withdrawn from SDDR and SDLR, and then disarmament of all militias, calling themselves the "army of the DPR" had to be carried out. Instead, the Kremlin, on the contrary, is trying only to strengthen the armed pressure, intending to achieve acceptance of its terms and conditions.
From what is said above it follows that the Kremlin hopes to confront Ukraine and the world with a fait accompli - elections are held in the DPR-LPR, accept them, we will assume that the Minsk agreements are fulfilled, lift the sanctions. Of course, Putin hopes to "replay" everyone, "they will have no other way" and he will put pressure on Ukraine.
The issue of withdrawal or extension of the sanctions will be decided in the summer of 2016, so the militants plan to hold "elections" in April just in such a way to have the desired result in the summer.
It means that the Kremlin is not going to return Donbass to Ukraine, they plan, on the contrary, to freeze the conflict for a long time, trying to legalize the illegal republics if not by their legal recognition, then by the recognition of the fact that they are there and there's nothing you can do about it.
One of such proofs is a sample of "passport of the DPR" shown by Zakharchenko at the press conference.
Recently he claimed that "spending millions of money on a piece of paper of the DPR is inappropriate", while adding that the militants of the "LPR" printed such a "piece of paper", but they are recognized nowhere.
And he suddenly declares the opposite decision. This means that the Kremlin has changed its mind and decided to finance the "passport of the DPR" project that just fits the plan of "legalization" of the occupied territories.
It seems that Putin believed his entourage, who stated that the low price of oil would not last long, it was not profitable, that soon the oil price would return to 40 or even $ 50 a barrel, and it is an indicator used as a basis in the calculation of the Russian budget. It is the calculation of "maybe we are out of danger" and then sanctions will be lifted.
It is also possible that the recent announcement accusing Putin of Litvinenko's murder, which was followed by statements by the United States and Britain on the need to respond appropriately and take additional measures against Russia, preparing Tribunal for downed "Boeing" and understanding that Russia is increasingly isolating from the outside world have created the mood - "as well be hanged for a sheep as for a lamb" and "we’ll show you."
Nevertheless, Ukraine needs to prepare for a stronger opposition and pressure from the Kremlin, to the new accusations of unwillingness to fulfill Minsk agreements and, as a result, attempts to push their terms.
Viktor Yakovlev, for OstroV