Negotiations of "Norman Quartet" with the participation of the Presidents of Ukraine, France, Russia and German chancellor were held in Paris on October 2. The main topic of the talks was the progress of the Minsk agreements, as well as issues arising from the removal of a weapons, amnesty and elections.
The meeting lasted nearly 5 hours and ended without signing any agreements, however, brought a lot of verbal agreements that are fundamentally changing the situation in the self-proclaimed "DPR" and "LPR".
Separatist information agencies all together reported that despite the absence of the representatives of the "republics" in Paris, the role of their representation at the meeting was actually performed by the Russian President. After the meeting at the Elysee Palace, Vladimir Putin went without commenting on the negotiations. Putin's spokesman Dmitriy Peskov said all the parties agreed that "all Minsk agreements should be implemented without any interpretations". This was discussed on air of the separatist "First Republican Channel" on October 2.
"The negotiators have noted progress in the situation in Ukraine, in particular, on the issue of the signing the document on the withdrawal of weapons of the caliber up to 100 mm. Presumably, the withdrawal will begin tomorrow at midnight. The parties also talked about the support of the OSCE mission, expanding its mandate and humanitarian aspects. In addition, amnesty and local elections in Donbass were discussed. A question about the Ukrainian pilot Savchenko was raised, but Vladimir Putin said that it could be discussed only after the sentencing. Meanwhile, the dialogue on Ukraine will be continued, said Peskov. In November, as expected, there will be a meeting of foreign ministers. In addition, daily contact of Assistant to the President for International Affairs continue", - was stated in the plotting.
The meeting of the leaders of "Norman Quartet" was also so reservedly reported in the news of "Novorossia" information agency. Summing up the meeting in Paris, they dryly quoted French President Hollande that elections in Donbass had to be conducted according to the Ukrainian legislation, and candidates should be provided with immunity.
"The elections have to be conducted according to the Ukrainian legislation. It is essential that these elections are organized in the framework of the working group that the results of these elections are undeniable. We have appealed to the parties concerned so that they take part in the process. The elections scheduled on October 18 do not meet all the necessary criteria. Elections in the east of Ukraine should be conducted but later"- summed up Hollande.
The blogger known as "Amphora" was one of the first to express his opinion on the outcome of the Paris meeting. He believes that Hollande and Merkel pretty pressured Russia on the issue of the abolition of pseudo-elections on the occupied part of the Donbass.
"According to the laws of Ukraine ... This was the key phrase said during a press conference of Holland and Merkel following Versailles meeting, to hold elections in Donetsk and Lugansk according to the laws of Ukraine.
Of course, this is not the only thing said by the presidents of Germany and France, following the meeting of Norman Quartet, but the phrase about the elections "according to the laws of Ukraine" was emphasized, it was repeated several times, and the elections were declared to be an important step in the further implementation of the Minsk agreements, which, as all parties repeatedly stated, "have no alternative".
Russian President did not participate in the press conference, but no rebuttals of Merkel and Holland’s words followed from the Kremlin, that means Moscow agrees with the thesis delivered after the meeting.
It is unlikely that the Kremlin agreed to the above very willingly, but had to accept.
And to argue with the requirement under the laws of the elections in Ukraine is quite difficult, because in the Minsk Agreement it is written like that, and those agreements "have no alternative" as the Kremlin and he always say.
Another thing is that the elections "according to the laws of Ukraine" are supposed to be held after the constitutional reforms giving Donbass a special status. But this issue in Paris was just taken out of the brackets.
Donetsk and Luhansk that did not participate in yesterday's gatherings in Paris may say that they know nothing and elections "in Kiev style" and will not hold them under the Ukrainian flag. The special status and that’s it, but for now elections according to their laws.
Can LDNR say so? They can. They can also postpone the elections until they receive a special status, that is, till the next year. And the Minsk agreements will not be valid next year and there will be space for creativity and the ability to a variety of interpretations.
The truth is the Minsk agreements will be disrupted and not by the Kremlin, but the leaders of LDNR. And the question arises why were they signed then? Yes, and the Kremlin will still be in an unpleasant situation, because as a guarantor of the implementation of agreements by the LDNR it failed to achieve their realization ", - thinks the blogger.
Federal news agency (FAN) website on the day of the negotiations in Paris decided to quote the assistant secretary of the USA for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland. Her statement did not concern directly negotiations of the "Norman Format", and was in fact a refutation of the statements of some European politicians about the possible reconsideration f the sanctions policy due to changes in the position of Russia towards Donbass.
"Sanctions against Russia will act unless the Crimea is returned to Ukraine. US sanctions against the Crimea will remain in force until the peninsula is returned to Ukraine, said Assistant Secretary of the USA for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland. Reported by FAN. The American politician called the return of the Crimea to Russia the "occupation", noting that sanctions against Russia will remain in force. "Sanctions will remain as long as the occupation of the Crimea continues", - added Nuland.
The day after the Paris summit, the leader of "DPR" Alexander Zakharchenko spoke at the forum of public movement "Donetsk Republic" which was held at the Donetsk Olympic stadium. Despite the results of the negotiations in Paris, he called on residents of the occupied territory to defend the "independence" of undeclared "republic".
"Now my speech won’t be usual for celebration, I want to ask a couple of questions. What do you think, why, when children are born, the first word they say is either dad or mom? Do you think any mother would give her life for her child? That's right, any. That's right, because they are the parents. Here, the word father or mother; a love for the motherland starts with a mother's love to her son or daughter.
You see, as a resident of this city, the land, I can say the following. You cannot betray your son or daughter. We cannot abandon the country. You cannot leave the independence for which our children paid the price! And here are in front of you the people who will be asked if they do not do what I am about to say; you should, first of all, think about the people, you have to think about the country, you have to think about our children. I want to address to all who are here now, take a look around you as you see the flags of Donetsk People's Republic. We are worth nothing as well as deaths of our friends if we step away from this path. Thank you all very much, "- said the leader of the separatists in "DPR".
Thus, Zakharchenko has publicly stated its unwillingness to comply with the Minsk agreements proceeding from the fact that the Donbass is Ukraine.
It’s interesting that despite the copious quotations of Western politicians, Ukrainian position on the Paris agreements had almost no coverage in the separatist media.
Short music played
The self-proclaimed "people's republics" agree to transfer local elections from October 18 and November 1 to 2016. As it was reported by controlled by terrorists Donetsk news agency, it is stated in a special statement of the representatives of “DPR” and “LPR” of the contact group of Denis Pushilin and Vladislav Deineho. They found it "positive" that the summit of "Norman Quartet" in Paris had taken into account the suggestion of "LPR" to postpone the election till February.
"Kiev is obliged to perform all the undertaken obligations within the Minsk agreements, representatives of the self-proclaimed republics added. It is about granting special status to the Donbas, preventing persecution of participants of events on the territory of “DPR” and “LPR” and the adoption of amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine, taking into account the wishes of the republics", - reported in the official media of Donetsk separatists DAN.
Apparently, the leaders of the "republics" had not expected such a dramatic turn of events. Traditional official statement that everything goes according to plan and "none lets us down" didn’t follow.
But there were numerous analytical articles of all kinds why the "authorities of DPR" refused to hold fake election. Most pro-separatist analysts agreed that this compromise of the Kremlin was not accidental. Thus, Moscow is taking a pause in further conflict in Donbass. The blogger Vsevolod Vladimirski also wrote about that.
"The meeting of the “Norman Quartet" on October 2 in Paris ended with very modest results. In fact, we can say that consequence of the meeting was cancellation of local elections in Donbass on October 18 and November 1, and the implementation of the Minsk agreement will be extended to 2016. Indeed, many political analysts have predicted a similar outcome. There could be some global "shift" in the Minsk process if in New York Putin and Obama agreed with them, and as it did not happen the Paris meeting didn’t have many results.
Judging by the fact that “DPR” and “LPR” election headquarters stopped their work, waiting for Moscow to confirm the date of elections, the cancellation of local elections in the republic is quite possible, as well as the extension of the implementation of Minsk 2 to 2016.
On the one hand, if the elections are held, then Poroshenko will have an argument for the prosecution of “DPR” and “LPR” in disrupting the Minsk process. But Merkel and Hollande will receive a "slap in the face" because their opinion is not taken into account. On the other hand, if the election is canceled, it will be a clear demonstration that it’s not necessary to negotiate with Donetsk and Luhansk, and all can be solved via Moscow. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has been trying to force Kiev more than a year to have direct negotiations with Donbass, and the abolition of elections will cause a severe blow to these efforts. In addition, it will be a political victory of Poroshenko. Hollande, Merkel and Peskov admitted the possibility of prolongation of the Minsk process to 2016. Poroshenko also previously acted strongly against this. In fact, his whole strategy is based on the postponing the adoption of laws to the end of the year, and then put “DPR” and “LPR” before the fact, but if the agreement is extended to 2016, it will be harder for Poroshenko to "get out". Moscow and Donetsk will raise the question of holding real but not fake constitutional reform with the introduction of the Basic Law on the article of special status. There is no doubt that Poroshenko will continue to "back pedal", to make some laws without the consent of Donetsk and simulate the search for compromise in 2016. That is why the prospects of the Minsk process now look very vague".
The Russian national radical Eduard Limonov is dissatisfied with frank unwillingness of Moscow to make much with the "republics". He is seriously feared by the completion of further expansion of the "Russian world" and calls all international agreements on Donbass to be "evil".
"The Crimea isn’t enough for us, we were promised Russian World. One year and 15 days passed from the date of the first Minsk agreements. Frankly speaking, a long time. All this time we, the radicals, have been waiting for the resumption of hostilities. Not because war is a fun but because otherwise the purpose of the Donetsk rebellion is not achieved. These military actions started, you remember Debaltsevo, but European firefighters Hollande and Merkel intervened, and forced the parties of the conflict to return to the miserable Minsk Agreements.
There were rumours that the war was about to begin on May 9 or another date. Now here they say that everything will start immediately after the election. In Ukraine and “DPR” and “LPR”. Immediately after.
Meanwhile, the most radical elements in “DPR” and “LPR” are cleared away. Someone is dead, some are pushed away, the latest ugly history happened to Purgin.
Here we are sitting and waiting for the beginning, and we’ve already got doubt whether it will start, the war isn’t started against docile governments of the republics of the rebels.
Do you still like it? I don’t.
What are you doing, lords? So many promises given. Such a patriotic upsurge in Russia, and what are you doing?
I appeal to the Consilium of the Russian authorities, to solvers of fate, because they do not believe that everything depends on one person, I think he is just a spokesman.
The Crimea isn’t enough for us. They promised to unite the Russian world and you should fulfill the promises. We're all on the edge, we are waiting, as promised!
If we are not allowed to interfere in the fate of the Russian world, so you should do something!
We are not going to forget that. The Crimea isn’t enough for us.
I think that in this case I express the general mood "- summed up Limonov.
The war in Syria distracts from the conflict in Donbass. This was stated by a former leader of the militants of so-called DPR Igor Strelkov-Girkin in his interview for Moskva govorit.
"Why, on hell, are you involved in the war in Syria if you haven’t finished (or rather not even have really started) fighting on the main front? Why are we rescuing Ukraine the second autumn in a row from "freezing"? Why are the "daughter" of Sberbank and VTB still financing ATO? And many other inconsistencies that prevent from building any logical pattern. But in case of a banal surrender, then everything is understandable, very logical and reasonable.
Fighting on several fronts (next is Tajikistan) during the economic crisis and totally abandoning the mobilization of measures in the economy is, without a doubt, irresponsible and stupid venture that has nothing to do with the word "planning".
According to him, the fighters from the occupied territories of Donbass have already gone to Syria. He explained that the mercenaries from the east Ukraine travel to Syria for money, there for taking part in the fighting they are paid, in his words, ten times more.
"If "militia soldiers of police" in the enlisted rank receive a salary of 15 000 Russian rubles, "private military companies" get, as I heard, different amount, from 150 to 200 thousand rubles a month (50-66 thousand hryvnia), plus three million insurance for death "- said the former leader of the militants”.
In addition, Strelkov said that he would gladly go to fight in Syria if he was sent but would not go voluntarily.
"If I was mobilized and sent to Syria, then I would go there without thinking for a minute, and without the slightest objection. Even with some pleasure, I have to admit, I could realize there again as a military professional. And I would quite reasonably fight, fully aware that I fighting against mortal enemies of Christianity and candid Satanists who use Islam as a cover for completely infernal activities. But I will not go there voluntarily".
The pro-separatist political scientist Vladimir Volkov said that Russia's participation in military operations in Syria was a part of the great geopolitical game. He accuses the Kremlin of "blurring" the eyes of Russians by Syrian conflict due to the fact that control of the situation in Donbass is no longer the top priority in Russia.
"Involvement of Russia in the war against IGIL does not solve the conflict in Novorossia. You can’t dream of "replacement based on the principle of "we help you to fight against IGIl and you leave us alone on the issue of the Crimea and Donbass"... The fact that Russia entered into a global war which can be solved in some local points, can be doubted only by the most devoted fans of the Soviet cartoon about the cat Leopold ("Guys, let's live in piece"). The Crimean somersault, Donbass gas chamber, Minsk groveling, Western sanctions and Syrian propaganda have all become a prologue to a long and multi-vector hybrid confrontation, the aim of which in the interpretation of Western "partners" is the overthrow of the Russian government, its dependency and possible dismemberment of the Russian Federation. However, the Syrian events are only a part of the great geopolitical game. For the Kremlin it’s an attempt to distract the Russian people from the solved with the participation of Official Moscow and Kiev tragedy of Novorossia and "replace" this problem with exponential fight with IGIL. For the West that is restrained and responded positively to the military intervention in Syria it’s on the contrary a significant step in getting Russia involved into a meat grinder with radical Islamists, with the further unleashing their hands already in other parts of the arena of the war against the Russian Federation, particularly in Central Asia, the Caucasus and Crimea.
Judging by the events of the last week, such a prospect is not particularly worrying for the owners of the Kremlin. The decisions made at the top of the pyramid of the Russian authorities are too chaotic, illogical and unpredictable".
In his turn, the blogger Rostislav Antonov noted that this prioritization of Moscow can play tricks on it. He calls Russia's interest in Syria indirect. Indeed, in Ukraine, he said, the enemy was closer and the threat was more real.
"It’s interesting to observe how people change manuals. Just some time ago a person fought for Donbass so much. You wonder why he didn’t go there with a gun, but resisted, else the third world war could start because of him. And then suddenly it disappeared. And then you can send troops to Syria and fight for the Syrians. We are fighting against devil incarnates and in Donbas it is peaceful and even there are some elections.
And opponents are not sitting on hind quarters. No sooner has the yellow and blue paint on a statue of Lenin dried as black is already prepared. And the children of Syria lie covered in blood.
Lately I wrote almost nothing about Donbass, can’t find words. I don’t have much to say about Syria.
And not because "Putin surrendered" and I feel sorry for “Syrian children".
Nobody surrendered Donbass and it will not return to Ukraine (it will exist as Pridnestrovye), and they know who to bomb in Syria.
I understand that the Islamists will not become our friends. And it is desirable to destroy enemies where they live rather than wait until they disperse with "sacks of sugar" throughout Russia. Still, in the case of Syria, our interest is indirect and the threat is hypothetical, but Ukraine is another story. Here the enemy is quite specific and the threat is real. And instead of solving the problem once and for all we throw our people under the bus of ukrainizers. Russians after all do not live only in the Crimea and Donetsk. Being a Russian in Ukraine isn’t easy. That’s why you need to clench your teeth and look at this mess and just wait. The logic of history is inexorable and after Khasavyurt there will be storming of Grozny".
The review was prepared by Ruslan Biryukov, OstroV