1. On the night of September 30, russia launched its largest combined attack on Ukraine since the end of the previous heating season. The main targets were energy facilities in Kyiv and the Kyiv oblast. Centrenergo confirmed that generating equipment at the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant had been damaged. Power outages began in Kyiv and the surrounding region.
This can be described as the beginning of the kremlin's winter energy campaign. In addition, attacks are now regularly continuing during the day, forcing Ukraine's air defenses to remain under strain practically around the clock and businesses to suffer enormous losses. The government estimates that the economy loses approximately $45 million for every hour businesses are shut down due to air raid alerts. There are also losses caused by power outages, which will now become constant. Against the backdrop of the $20 billion funding shortfall reported by Ukraine, this could affect both the provision of supplies to the army and social payments.
Putin is provoking a humanitarian crisis, an economic collapse, and the demoralization of society in order to enter negotiations with Ukraine in the spring, when it will be at its weakest. He plans to compensate for setbacks on the front line by destroying the country's rear.
2. During the day on September 30, russia launched 285 attack drones, 174 of which were jet-powered. Air defenses neutralized 254 targets, including 146 of the 174 jet-powered UAVs.
The approximately 84% interception rate for jet-powered “Shaheds” shows that Ukraine has learned how to counter jet-powered UAVs. However, even a 15% breakthrough rate, given such large numbers, guarantees daily hits for russia.
3. Ukraine has officially appealed to the United States, requesting sanctions against companies developing the russian satellite network Rassvet, an alternative to Starlink. Russia plans to begin operating it in 2027. This would allow russian units to obtain reliable broadband communications directly on the battlefield and transmit target coordinates in near real time.
What matters here is not so much the fact that the appeal was made, but the reality of the threats posed by russia's own “Starlink”. Otherwise, Kyiv would not be raising this issue now.
Washington's response should be positive, since the consequences could be catastrophic not only for Kyiv but also for Americans in Iran. The problem is that the United States could turn a step that benefits it into an additional bargaining chip with Kyiv. In other words, it could trade it for concessions in negotiations with russia that would be disadvantageous to Ukraine.