1. In New York on September 24, the Ukrainian negotiating team held a meeting with Trump’s special envoys — Witkoff and Kushner. Putin’s special representative Dmitriev met with Witkoff and Kushner in New York as well. On the same day, Volodymyr Zelensky announced an agreement on a new package of interceptor missiles for Patriot systems, refusing to name the supplier country. Against this backdrop, Finnish President Alexander Stubb told Reuters that he had asked Elon Musk to allow Ukraine to use Starlink over areas of russia where ballistic missile launchers are located. According to Stubb, this could help Ukraine strike the launchers before the missiles are launched.
The agreement on Patriot interceptors, if real, could affect moscow’s uncompromising stance at the negotiating table, as the availability of interceptor missiles for Kyiv significantly complicates the kremlin’s plans for the winter energy depletion of its adversary. A positive response from Musk to Stubb’s proposal could also be a strong factor influencing moscow. But while Musk is thinking, everything will depend on the number of missiles. If it is inadequate compared with russia’s ballistic capabilities, there is no point for the kremlin in agreeing to an “energy” truce. If relative parity is established in the skies over the next month, putin may give Trump a gift ahead of the November elections, but such a truce would be short-lived, since neither side is interested in it.
2. The EU Council approved on September 24 the payment of Ukraine’s eighth tranche under the Ukraine Facility mechanism — nearly 3 billion euros. The decision was made after Ukraine fulfilled 84 of 95 targets, including reforms of the electricity and heating operators and railway safety.
The tranche closes current budget gaps but does not solve the main problem: Ukraine’s need for external financing for 2027 is estimated at approximately $52 billion, and most of this amount has not been confirmed by sources. Kyiv has fallen into heavy financial dependence on Brussels, which will release funding only after its reform requirements are met. For ordinary Ukrainians, this means higher tariffs, tighter fiscal policy, and an intensification of the struggle between the president’s power vertical and anti-corruption bodies.
3. On September 24, the High Anti-Corruption Court approved a plea agreement with former acting head of the Presidential Administration Serhii Pashynskyi in a case involving the misappropriation of seized petroleum products in 2014 — the damage to the state exceeded UAH 817 million. Pashynskyi fully admitted his guilt. Under the agreement, he is required to pay about UAH 1.1 billion: UAH 600 million to the state budget over two and a half years, UAH 400 million to the “Come Back Alive” foundation to purchase weapons, and UAH 100 million to Serhii Sternenko’s charitable foundation. He was also barred from holding government positions for one year. The sentence does not provide for an actual prison term or confiscation of property.
A dangerous precedent. Justice is being monetized. The state does not punish wealthy thieves; it simply makes them share. And since the entire state system is corrupt, this essentially becomes simply a redistribution of what was stolen among the powerful who have been caught and those who have not yet been caught.
4. Xi Jinping’s state visit took place in Washington: a closed-door conversation with Donald Trump lasted about three hours, and according to the official Chinese summary, the leaders exchanged views, including on the “Ukrainian crisis”. However, neither side publicly disclosed any details.
“If you are not at the table, you are on the menu”… For both Beijing and Washington, Ukraine is merely an instrument for implementing their policies toward moscow. Russia’s war against Ukraine allows China to make russia increasingly dependent on it and obtain cheap natural resources. For Trump, this war provides not only economic weakening of moscow, but also leverage over it in the form of regulating aid to Ukraine, arms sales, and the use of sanctions. Therefore, Trump and Xi are more likely to reach an agreement on Iran than on peace in Ukraine. If that happened, the outcome of their negotiations would be beneficial for Kyiv, since falling oil prices would deprive russia of the financial resources to wage war. Therefore, any de-escalation between China and the U.S. is a positive factor for Ukraine.