1. In the night of September 17, russians launched a massive combined strike on Ukraine. According to the Air Force, the attack involved Oniks anti-ship missiles, Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, S-400 surface-to-air missiles, four Kalibr missiles, ten Banderol/Dan-T missiles, and 157 Shahed-type attack drones. Air defense forces shot down or suppressed 131 targets — seven Banderol missiles and 124 drones.
None of the ballistic or cruise missiles were intercepted. This is a direct indication that Kyiv still lacks Patriot air defense missiles. Accordingly, moscow will take advantage of Ukraine’s vulnerability, and the intensity of its airstrikes will increase to the extent allowed by its capabilities to manufacture and purchase missiles.
2. During the russian attack on Ukraine’s western regions, a jet-powered drone fell and exploded approximately 4 kilometers from the Polish border. The Polish Air Force scrambled fighter jets, while the airports in Lublin and Rzeszów temporarily suspended operations.
Russia is systematically turning the Ukrainian-Polish border area into a zone of constant risk. This is how NATO’s reactions are being tested and nervousness is being created in the alliance’s member states. There has been no formal violation of the border, but there are suspended airports, aircraft scrambled, and a frightened population.
3. Ukraine struck the Yaroslavl Oil Refinery (YANOS) approximately 250 km northeast of moscow. The plant halted oil refining. This is particularly important after the shutdown of the Syzran and Saratov oil refineries, which we discussed yesterday.
Ukraine has not halted its campaign of strikes on russian oil refineries despite Donald Trump’s public demand to limit strikes on russian diesel production. In other words, Kyiv is sticking to its position for now: there will be no unilateral moratorium without an end to russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
4. The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) published a poll (conducted from August 21 to September 10, with 1,003 respondents): 54% trust Zelensky, while 41% do not. The rating has changed little against the backdrop of the “Forrest Gump” and “Carthage” corruption scandals linked to his entourage.
The stability of Zelensky’s rating at 54% shows that Ukraine’s corrupt system of government has managed to “normalize” corruption in Ukrainian society as an inevitability. People do not spend psychological resources on an “inevitable evil”. This is a very dangerous trend for society. At the same time, Ukrainians’ tolerance of corruption can also be explained by the presence of an external enemy whom people consider more dangerous to themselves than domestic corruption. When the external enemy factor weakens, the corruption baggage of politicians will become decisive for the electorate.