The situation in Crimea strengthens Ukraine’s position in negotiations, but putin still fears ending the war – political analyst Chalenko Events in occupied Crimea, strikes on russian logistics and strategic facilities of the russian federation are gradually strengthening Ukraine’s negotiating position and pushing the kremlin to seek options for ending the war. At the same time, the main obstacle to real agreements remains the personal position of russian president vladimir putin. This opinion was expressed in a comment to OstroV by political analyst and head of the Center for Analysis and Strategies, Ihor Chalenko.
“The situation in Crimea currently demonstrates the inability of the russian bureaucracy and the russian state machine to effectively counter targeted attacks. From the standpoint of diplomacy and negotiations, this strengthens Ukraine’s position regarding the need to end the war based on the situation on the ground”, - the expert noted.
Chalenko recalled that the russian leadership continues to declare its intention to achieve the goals of the so-called “special military operation” by military means. At the same time, scenarios involving a cessation of hostilities along the front line are being discussed more and more frequently at the international level.
“We know that the russians continue to emphasize military solutions to their objectives. But Ukraine does not agree to options involving the transfer of territories by non-military means. Therefore, the most realistic scenario for a rapid end to the war without further bloodshed remains a cessation of hostilities along the line of contact”, - the political analyst believes.
In his opinion, Ukraine’s actions aimed at weakening russian capabilities both in Crimea and in other directions are intended precisely to create such conditions.
The expert drew attention to systematic strikes on the logistics of occupied territories, attacks on russian oil refineries, drone strikes on moscow, and the increasing range of Ukrainian drones.
“The situation around Crimea, logistical problems along the land corridor, strikes on moscow, attacks on russian oil refining infrastructure, and the increasing range of Ukrainian drones are all aimed at forcing the kremlin to take the negotiation process more seriously”, - Chalenko said.
At the same time, according to him, contradictory signals regarding readiness for negotiations are coming from moscow.
On the one hand, russian officials continue to declare the need to achieve military goals, while on the other hand, kremlin representatives are increasingly speaking about their readiness for a negotiated settlement.
“We are seeing an ambiguous position from the kremlin. On the one hand, there are harsh statements about continuing the war. On the other hand, signals are being sent about readiness for genuine negotiations on ending it”, - the political analyst noted.
He also recalled reports in Western media regarding unofficial consultations surrounding possible parameters for a ceasefire.
“Through Western media, we know about behind-the-scenes negotiations and various proposals for freezing the conflict along the front line. That is, to some extent, the process of bringing putin to the negotiating table is already underway”, - the expert believes.
At the same time, in his opinion, the main problem remains the russian president’s personal perception of the war.
“Putin has apparently concluded that ending the war poses a direct threat to himself, his family, and his political regime. He may view the end of the war as the beginning of his own political demise”, - Chalenko said.
At the same time, the political analyst is convinced that prolonging the war only increases risks for the russian leadership.
“The longer the war continues, the more problems accumulate inside russia itself. This concerns not only military or economic challenges, but also the risks of internal destabilization and conflicts within the elite”, - he noted.
According to the expert, the current actions of Ukraine and its partners are aimed at convincing putin that ending the war is, above all, in his own interests.