For the first time in 20 years, tanks and other military equipment did not pass through Red Square in moscow on May 9. As a result, the day that was supposed to symbolize russia’s military power during the rule of russian dictator vladimir putin instead demonstrated its vulnerability and weakness. This is stated in an analysis by the British publication The Economist.
“For the first time in almost three years, the initiative in the war appears to have shifted to Ukraine. Having survived a harsh winter during which its cities and energy system were subjected almost every night to massive strikes by russian drones and missiles, Ukraine is now turning the tide. It is inflicting increasing losses on russia across almost every metric”, - the article says.
At the same time, russia’s expected spring offensive not only failed — in April, russian forces suffered net territorial losses for the first time since August 2024. According to calculations by The Economist based on maps from the Institute for the Study of War, russia lost control of 113 square kilometers over the past 30 days.
“Overall, this looks like a turning point in the war. If the russians do not get any results from their efforts, I would not be surprised if things start collapsing in some places”, - said Lawrence Freedman, professor of war studies at King's College London.
As The Economist notes, the ratio of killed and wounded is increasing because a significant share of casualties (up to 80%) is now caused by FPV drone strikes.
At the same time, russian occupiers complain that Ukraine’s new autonomous drones are inaudible until they begin diving. They use artificial intelligence and are controlled via fiber-optic cables to resist jamming.
Freedman argues that the drone kill zone, stretching about 20 km between the front lines, extends far into russia’s rear and has a greater impact on russian operations than on Ukrainian ones. For Ukraine, it is far more effective to destroy support infrastructure for offensives than to eliminate the relatively small number of soldiers currently leading attacks, the publication clarifies.
Russia is also suffering losses from Ukrainian medium-range drones (50 to 300 km). Targets include ammunition depots, drone warehouses, command-and-control points, anti-aircraft missile launchers, radars, and deployment sites where armored vehicles and troops are concentrated
However, the question is whether russia’s various setbacks — on the battlefield or as a result of the destruction of economic infrastructure — indicate that putin’s capabilities in Ukraine are shrinking, The Economist notes.
“It is hard to imagine how the situation could improve for russia. If you had to brief putin, the picture would be quite bleak”, - said Jones.