Putin won’t stop on his own until he captures Donbas. But he can be forced to compromise — Serhii Harmash on kremlin’s demands Russia’s demand for the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Donetsk oblast did not emerge now and was in fact embedded in previous agreements with the United States. This was stated by political expert and former member of the Ukrainian delegation to the Minsk TCG, Serhii Harmash, in an interview with OstroV.
“The very demand for the withdrawal of the AFU from the Donetsk oblast is not new. It was not voiced directly by President Zelensky during the presentation of his 20-point plan, which was supposedly agreed by Ukraine with the United States, but it was clearly read between the lines”, - he noted.
According to the expert, one of the options envisaged the creation of a free economic zone, which meant demilitarization of the region.
“This was called ‘territorial agreements’, which included option A — a ceasefire along the front line; and option B — the creation of a free economic zone. The latter effectively meant demilitarization of the region, that is, also the withdrawal of the AFU”, - explained Serhii Harmash.
At the same time, according to him, such a scenario does not suit moscow, since it does not give it legal control.
“This would not give moscow jurisdiction over this territory. After that, it was repeatedly stated that russia does not agree to such ‘territorial agreements’”, - the expert emphasized.
He noted that the real goal of the kremlin is full control over Donbas.
“The desires of putin, no matter how our negotiators tried to mask them, were obvious — de facto control over the Donetsk oblast”, - Serhii Harmash stated.
The expert added that for putin, stopping the war without capturing Donbas would mean defeat.
“He will not stop on his own until he captures Donbas, because for him stopping before that moment would mean defeat in the war”, - he noted.
At the same time, according to Harmash, the kremlin can be forced to compromise.
“But he can be stopped by creating conditions where the kremlin will see that the price is disproportionate to the gain, that it is more convenient to put on a good face in a bad game and go for a compromise that can be interpreted as a victory, than to risk an obvious defeat. And such a threat exists for him”, - the expert concluded.