For the first time since the Cold War, European countries are discussing the possibility of creating their own nuclear deterrence amid concerns that the United States may no longer be a reliable security partner. This was reported by Bloomberg citing sources, Hromadske reports.
Currently in Europe, only United Kingdom and France possess nuclear weapons. Together they have about 400 warheads (for comparison, the United States have approximately 1,670). Maintaining these arsenals costs them around $12 billion per year — more than half of Sweden’s defense budget.
The United Kingdom depends on supplies from the United States for its nuclear arsenal, while France is capable of producing warheads independently.
It is expected that French President Emmanuel Macron may offer other European countries support in nuclear deterrence. He previously mentioned the possibility of extending France’s “nuclear umbrella” to the rest of Europe.
If other European states decide to develop their own arsenals, this would require significant financial costs and violations of international treaties. If, on the other hand, nuclear protection by the United Kingdom and France is expanded, the risk of retaliatory strikes on their territory increases.
“Imagine that russia invades Estonia. France is capable of inflicting serious damage on russia, but russia in response would definitely inflict serious damage on France. Would Paris be ready for such a scenario?” - noted Pavel Podvig, senior research fellow at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research.
Among the possible options being considered is the deployment of French aircraft — carriers of nuclear weapons — in other European countries, in particular in Poland. Softer steps include expanding the participation of NATO countries in France’s nuclear exercises or closer coordination with NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group.
Individual countries could invest in creating “turnkey” infrastructure that would allow a nuclear program to be rapidly deployed if necessary. However, this would require nuclear power plants, complex and costly uranium enrichment facilities, as well as political readiness to violate agreements on nuclear non-proliferation.