“The kremlin needs a triumph”. Putin may drag out the war until 2026 to halt combat ahead of State Duma elections – analyst
Russia is deliberately prolonging the war against Ukraine at least until summer 2026 in order to exploit victory rhetoric ahead of the State Duma elections. This was stated in an interview with OstroV by political analyst and former participant of the Minsk TCG, Serhiy Harmash.
“Russia has a clear timeline — the Duma elections in September 2026. They need to halt the fighting sometime in summer 2026 so they can ride a wave of ‘victory euphoria’ into the campaign and win it”, - he noted.
According to the expert, the kremlin needs not just a formal victory, but a triumph — one that would allow it to legitimize further intensification of repressions even in peacetime. That’s why putin cannot afford to end the war without achieving full control at least over the Donetsk oblast, which is formally enshrined in russia’s constitution.
Serhiy Harmash emphasized that any end to the war before accomplishing this goal could be perceived inside russia as a political defeat. As a result, the kremlin is constantly consulting with the military, assessing how much time and resources would be required to fully seize Donbas. Most likely, russia will try to implement this plan by the end of 2025.
In addition to military and political factors, the kremlin also fears the social consequences of ending the hostilities.
“If the war suddenly ends, hundreds of thousands of mobilized troops will return home, and something will have to be done with them. Many among them suffer from mental disorders, have criminal records, disabilities. This will undoubtedly trigger a spike in crime and, consequently, social unrest”, - Harmash stressed.
Moreover, the return of such a large number of people to the labor market will sharply increase unemployment. According to official data, 50% of “SMO” veterans can no longer find employment.
“The war justifies, in the eyes of russians, the economic hardships the country is experiencing. If the fighting stops, there will be a few months of euphoria, but then people will start asking: why did we win, yet life got worse?” - the analyst explains.
That’s why, he believes, putin is in no rush to end the war — it has become a tool for managing internal risks. In Serhiy Harmash’s opinion, the kremlin is stalling not only to complete its military objectives, but also to secure economic concessions in negotiations with the West: lifting sanctions, unfreezing assets, gaining access to international markets, and restoring trade. That could become the “price” for ending hostilities in 2026.
“Peace, like war, requires advance preparation. It’s like coming off a fast. You have to do it right. Putin understands that. Sadly, I don’t see that same understanding on our side”, - Serhiy Harmash concluded.