The dismissal of Mykhailo Fedorov from the post of defense minister was supposed to become one of the elements of a large-scale reset of the Ukrainian government. Instead, it has turned into a separate political problem for Volodymyr Zelensky.
Almost four weeks have passed since the Verkhovna Rada voted for the new composition of the government, but the post of defense minister still remains without a fully appointed head. For now, the Ministry of Defense is headed by Major General Yevhen Khmara, whom the Cabinet of Ministers appointed acting minister as of July 20.
Against this backdrop, Fedorov's own future also remains uncertain. The former minister did not enter into open confrontation with Volodymyr Zelensky and did not announce his departure from his team. At the same time, according to an OstroV source in the Verkhovna Rada familiar with the course of personnel consultations, Fedorov continues to insist on the position of head of the Ministry of Defense.
"There is no final decision from the Presidential Office at the moment. As far as we understand, negotiations regarding his future role are ongoing", - the source said.
According to him, for Zelensky, the problem is not only choosing a candidate for the post of defense minister. Fedorov's return after the protests could be perceived as the president yielding to street pressure.
At the same time, another OstroV source does not rule out that the final decision could change after the Verkhovna Rada returns to full-fledged work.
"For now, while parliament is not working in a normal plenary mode, the issue can be postponed. But when the question of appointing a new defense minister arises, a decision will have to be made. And then the option of Fedorov could once again be on the table", - the source added.
At the same time, there is no need to talk about a political crisis, political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko notes.
"There is no full-fledged political crisis, particularly in the legal sense, at the moment. If it had been impossible to appoint a new prime minister and form a government, then we could say that Ukraine had found itself in a political crisis.
Instead, there are crisis tendencies, serious political problems and manifestations of political instability. It has not been possible to appoint a new defense minister, and it is still unknown when this will be possible. Protests have emerged, and there has been a great deal of criticism directed at the president over the dismissal of Mykhailo Fedorov. In addition, the head of state has had to make a whole series of personnel appointments.
Some of them received a positive assessment, such as the appointment of Mykhailo Drapatyi. Others, on the contrary, are drawing criticism, as is currently the case with the appointment of Rustem Umerov. So, it is obvious that problems have arisen for the president. In my view, they are not yet critical, but they do exist. There are already negative consequences. Firing Fedorov was clearly a political mistake by Zelensky, but he can no longer reverse the situation", - he told OstroV.
"Cardboard Maidan" has not died down
Mykhailo Fedorov's resignation unexpectedly for the Presidential Office continued not in parliament, but on the streets. The first protests against his dismissal began on July 16 — essentially simultaneously with the Verkhovna Rada's vote on the new composition of the government. In Kyiv and a number of other cities, people took to the streets demanding that Fedorov be reinstated as defense minister. The protests quickly spread to the regions: demonstrations were held, in particular, in Lviv, Dnipro, Ivano-Frankivsk, Rivne, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Uzhhorod and other cities.
In the first days, the protest had another important demand — the resignation of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi. This proved important for the further development of the situation. After Zelensky replaced the commander-in-chief, the demand concerning Syrskyi was effectively removed from the agenda, but the protests in support of Fedorov did not stop. In other words, the president had already made one personnel decision that protesters linked to their demands, but this did not lead to the end of the protest campaign.
At the same time, it would be premature to say that the protest has simply disappeared. However, its current format differs from that of the first days: the demand remains the same, but protest activity has become less concentrated and has partially shifted from regular rallies to individual demonstrations and marches.
"Appointing Fedorov as defense minister under pressure from the "Cardboard Maidan", when Fedorov himself insists specifically on this position, would mean a complete political defeat for Zelensky. It would be not simply a manifestation of weakness, but a demonstration that the president had yielded to an ultimatum from the streets.
And some opposition politicians are already talking about this. They say that the recipe for pressuring Zelensky is now known: organize a new "Cardboard Maidan" over every conflict and issue ultimatums demanding the desired personnel decisions. Zelensky understands this as well. That is precisely why he cannot reinstate Fedorov as defense minister", - political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko told OstroV.
At the same time, it is telling that Fedorov himself does not appear at the protests and is publicly trying to distance himself from the street campaign in his support. He later explained that he deliberately does not participate in the demonstrations because his appearance could change the perception of the protests and give them a political character. According to Fedorov, some people are taking to the streets not for a specific politician, but in support of reforms, and his personal presence could shift the focus.
“Fedorov is being very cautious about these protests at the moment. He understands that if he personally attends a rally or publicly calls on people to come, it will immediately change the perception of the whole situation. Then it would be difficult to argue that this is simply a public reaction to the president’s personnel decision. It would look as though Fedorov himself were using the protest to pressure Zelensky.
That is why, as far as we can see, he is deliberately staying on the sidelines. For him, it is important now not to burn bridges with the president and to leave room for an agreement. In this sense, his current position is quite advantageous: the protesters themselves are demanding his return, while he is formally not leading this movement and is not entering into open conflict with Zelensky. This leaves him room for further negotiations with the Presidential Office”, - a source in the parliamentary majority told OstroV.
What can Zelensky offer Fedorov
So far, public signals indicate that there has been no final break between Zelensky and Fedorov. The former minister has not moved into open opposition, has not led the protests and has not begun publicly attacking the president. At the same time, he has not ruled out the possibility of returning to the Ministry of Defense if such an offer emerges again.
According to an OstroV source in the Verkhovna Rada, negotiations regarding Fedorov’s future role are continuing.
“Fedorov has not taken the Ministry of Defense off the table for himself. He continues to insist on returning to the position of minister and apparently is not considering other options. This is strong pressure, and Zelensky does not like that. But there is still no final decision from the Presidential Office. As far as we understand, negotiations regarding his future role are continuing”, - the OstroV source said.
According to the source, it is fundamentally important for the Presidential Office to find an option that would allow Fedorov to remain on the team without creating the impression that the president backed down under pressure from the protests. Therefore, the most comfortable scenario for Zelensky could be an intermediate one: not returning Fedorov specifically to the post of defense minister, but offering him another role in government. Political scientists also speak of the possibility of such a scenario.
“The Presidential Office has already made it clear that the issue of appointing Fedorov as defense minister is currently closed and that he may be offered other options for work. Fedorov himself takes a different position. At the same time, I do not believe that there are any final decisions under the current circumstances. During wartime, the political situation can change quite quickly. The only things that remain unchanged at present are the president of Ukraine and the current composition of the Verkhovna Rada until martial law ends. All other personnel decisions can be reconsidered”, - political scientist Ihor Chalenko told OstroV.
According to him, the final decision regarding Fedorov’s future remains the president’s political responsibility, and negotiations between the parties will most likely continue.
Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko also believes that Zelensky is interested in keeping Fedorov on his team, but no longer as defense minister.
“In particular, in order to neutralize him as a potential political opponent. But Zelensky cannot fulfill the ultimatum demanding his appointment as defense minister. Therefore, in my view, there is a high probability that Fedorov will not return to this particular position.
Perhaps Zelensky is counting on prolonging the situation around this issue working to his advantage. Especially since Fedorov himself is not showing any desire to move into opposition — this is very noticeable. Obviously, the Presidential Office hopes that the issue will gradually lose its sharpness and that the "Cardboard Maidan" will simply run out of steam”, - he noted in a comment to OstroV.
According to him, the Presidential Office may also be counting on the worsening situation at the front, massive strikes on Kyiv and the escalation of hostilities gradually distracting public attention from domestic political problems.
Unpromising ratings
Fedorov’s dismissal had another political consequence: the former minister sharply strengthened his standing in public opinion, while Zelensky’s rating declined, but did not collapse.
At the beginning of August, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), SOCIS and the Rating Group recorded a decline in the level of trust in the president. According to KIIS, compared with May, it fell from 61% to 55%. Rating recorded a decline from 62% at the beginning of July to 59% at the beginning of August, while SOCIS recorded a decline from 46.3% in March to 42.5% in August.
At the same time, Mykhailo Fedorov’s rating rose sharply after his dismissal. According to the Rating Group, the level of trust in him increased from 35% to 65%, while 72% of respondents negatively assessed the decision to dismiss him.
However, according to political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, it is still impossible to speak of a political collapse in Zelensky’s standing.
“The current situation has not yet dealt Zelensky a significant blow to his level of trust. Yes, a significant proportion of people simultaneously condemn Fedorov’s dismissal while still trusting the president who made that decision. There are many such paradoxes in public opinion today. This indicates that the situation is not yet as critical and fatal for Zelensky as it seemed to many. Therefore, I do not expect any drastic changes in the near future”, - he told OstroV.
At the same time, after his dismissal, Fedorov effectively entered the group of potential frontrunners in a future presidential race. However, as Fesenko emphasizes, he has not yet become Zelensky’s main rival.
“Fedorov has become one of the frontrunners in the ratings race, but not a ‘game changer’. Mykhailo Fedorov’s electoral surge has made him one of the potential frontrunners in future elections, but it has not fundamentally changed either the current political situation or the configuration of the hypothetical electoral race. Zelensky remains among the leaders, while Fedorov has not become his main rival”, - the political scientist noted.
An OstroV source in the parliamentary majority claims that the current ratings dynamics are not perceived as critical by the Presidential Office, but Fedorov’s growing support is not being ignored there.
“Right now, the Presidential Office does not see Fedorov’s ratings as some kind of catastrophe for the president. Obviously, a wave of support emerged around him after his dismissal, and this is an expected effect for someone who has found himself at the center of such a conflict. But Fedorov has not yet become Zelensky’s political rival in the full sense of the word.
For the president, something else is much more important: that Fedorov does not use these ratings to move into open opposition. So far, this has not happened, so the task of the Presidential Office now is to prevent a final break and leave room for further cooperation. If Fedorov remains on the team, his rating can work both for him and for the government. If he moves into independent politics, that would be a completely different story”, - the source said.
The second half of August will bring the denouement
The key moment for the Fedorov story will be the Verkhovna Rada’s return to full-fledged work in the second half of August. It is then that the president will have to decide on a permanent head of the Ministry of Defense, and therefore finally resolve the question of Fedorov’s future role.
According to Volodymyr Fesenko, putting forward a new ministerial candidate could once again intensify the protest campaign.
“In my view, the next key point will be the second half of August, when the Verkhovna Rada resumes work in plenary session. It is then that the candidacy of a new defense minister will likely be put forward. This could become a reason for a new wave of protests.
We will see how the situation develops. But most likely, Zelensky will no longer return Fedorov to the position of defense minister and will respond to the protests by ignoring them. His main task is to push his personnel decisions through the Verkhovna Rada and at least relatively stabilize the political situation”, - Fesenko emphasized.
Thus, the political conflict surrounding Fedorov remains more postponed than resolved. The Presidential Office does not want to give in to the protests, but it is also not interested in losing Fedorov completely. The former minister himself is not moving into open opposition, but continues to insist on returning to the Ministry of Defense.
“I think there will be no radical changes in the coming days. The Presidential Office will try to drag the situation out until parliament returns, and then it will have to decide on the defense minister. The option of Fedorov is not completely off the table, but his return currently looks unlikely. Most likely, they will look for a solution that will allow them both to appoint a new head of the Ministry of Defense and avoid a complete breakdown in relations with Fedorov. Much will depend on whether the protest activity continues and how strong public support for Fedorov will be”, - an OstroV source in the president’s team concluded.
By Andrii Andrieiev, OstroV’s journalist