The basis of all social processes is always the economy. Satisfied, confident in the future people will not go to the street to overthrow authorities to give power to somebody. The ideology and emotions are rather a trigger of any revolution, but certainly not its gunpowder. The same happened with the so-called "Russian Spring" in Donbass. Frankly speaking, law enforcement officials and local elites, that is, those who actually represented the Ukrainian state in the east of Ukraine bluntly surrendered this region to the Kremlin, in the hope of Russian salaries and pensions. Pensions and salaries in Donetsk and Luhansk are now really in rubles, but – be afraid of your desires – the average salary is 3-5 thousand rubles that does not even reach the level of extreme poverty in neighboring Russia.
Moscow really helps territories captured by its agents, but it cannot fully support them. Today, for example, the DPR is 87% completely economically dependent on Russia. The number may not be correct (the head of the so-called Security Council of the DPRI A. Khodakovsky previously stated 100% dependence), but it is a percentage of the goods on the shelves of Russian stores in Donetsk. Unfortunately, I do not have similar data for LPR, but I think that there is the number there is not smaller but even bigger.
At the last informal meeting of Petro Poroshenko and individual journalists and political scientists the President announced a sensational figure: Moscow spends 2 billion per month on the maintenance of the occupied regions of Donbass and Crimea ... Now, when the price of oil falls, these billions are a very heavy burden for Putin. Therefore, the charity is over - the so-called "people's republics" were ordered to live according to their means. The head of the LPR Igor Plotnitsky said last week that there would be no more humanitarian convoys from Russia after the New Year.
"To make it clear to all - when the child is one and a half years old like our Republic, then perhaps it is time to wean it from the mother and from the notion of humanitarian aid itself, in general," – quoted Luganskinformtsentr Plotnitsky.
You can understand what “mother” the occupied territory lost from the speech of the chief of the Center of LPR Restoration Management VladyslaV Tomashevsky.
"Today we have got more than forty-five thousand tons of humanitarian aid from Russia. About twenty-five thousand tons of them are food: canned food, pasta, cereal, flour, sugar, sunflower oil, etc., except for perishable products. The humanitarian aid also includes medical equipment and medicines, building materials ... fertilizers, seeds, we got more than 10 thousand, more than two thousand of educational literature, the government of the Russian Federation gave us books for pupils from 1 to 11 form ...". And that's just humanitarian convoy without gas, without weapons, without salaries to militants and allowances to "vacationers" ...
And that's just in the LPR! The occupied areas of Donetsk region, where the population is twice as large, will feel the loss of the Russian "mother" twice more noticeable.
How are the "republics" are going to compensate their economic consistency? What and who will now Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky "suck"?
"We together with Russia are going to work more on some other principles of partnership", - said Plotnitsky on this issue. But he did not specify which principles.
The secret was likely to be revealed by the DPR deputies who referred to the Russian curators with a proposal to give high-tech enterprises which are in the part of Donetsk region controlled by the militants under the control of Russia. They offer to create "industrial outpost" in this way to protect and promote the interests of the Russian Federation on the occupied territories of Donetsk region.
The scheme is more likely to look like this: the industrial enterprises of Ukrainian oligarchs on the occupied territories will be nationalized and handed over to Russian oligarchs. Or just nationalized and Russia will provide them with its orders, so that it will not just to give money to the separatists but force them to work off the money. In fact, it is external control the republics’ economy. Another thing is that this will be done at the expense of producing similar products by Russian companies, which will take away orders in favour of Donetsk and Luhansk competitors, but apparently Putin is less afraid of the social tension in Russia than food riots on the occupied areas of Donbass ...
One way or another but the puppet governments of the occupied territories in Luhansk and Donetsk regions have to look for their own sources of budget replenishment. Obviously such sources will be the population and business. But the question is whether they can satisfy the appetite of the new army of their officials? Especially if we assume that the Verkhovna Rada will adopt the draft law banning any economic relations with the occupied territories which was registered in the Ukrainian parliament last week?
The deputy of the "People’s Council of the DPR" Marina Zheynova insists that such measures by Ukraine will not have a significant impact on the economy of the DPR. "I think that the economic blockade by Ukraine has absolutely no effect on the business, if we are talking about industrial, product group of goods, because the business in this situation has almost completely switched to the Russian Federation", - she says.
Well, business has completely switched to Russia, but what does it give to the population of the occupied territories except for exorbitant prices? And about what business is it, in fact?
The so-called "head of administration" of Donetsk Igor Martynov answers this question to one local journalist.
- It means that business lifts up its head a bit?
- No, I cannot say that it has lifted up everything. No. As it is seen, small business, catering, trade, buy/sell can be run under these circumstances.
"Small business, catering, buy/sell ...". The largest industrial region, which gave a quarter of the national product, has been converted, in fact, into a market ... and they call it economy ...
Looting has been actually introduced as a state policy on the occupied territories. For example, LPR has lately talked a lot about the nationalization of the abandoned gas stations. They turn out to be not so abandoned. Well, nationalization is no longer nationalization but rather muscling in on the principle of "steal the stolen". You can draw such a conclusion after watching a record of the press conference of Igor Plotnitsky in Luhansk: "It is not about the abandoned gas stations for a long time. The issue is not that nobody used them here. No, you know that almost all the gas stations worked here. But working on the scheme, which at that time we could not come up with anything better than that, who can draw, these are taken and pulled, and provide fuel. Well, you remember, in the beginning, when the Republic originated. Today, yes, there is a goal that will be filling the state and the owners are the ones who work on our territory whose hands are not stained with the blood of our people, who have a network of gas stations and will work "...
In Donetsk there are also many people wishing to do business by skimming people's property. This was told by the so-called "Mayor" Igor Martynov.
"A lot of people resort to us when shops are closed here, stalls and premises are closed. People ask to open them. But, unfortunately, we cannot still fully satisfy them at the legislative level." The keyword here is "still" ...
So, the whole business in the LPR and the DPR amounts to looting, public catering and sell/buy. It is clear that 3 million people cannot be fed like that. Republic is simply doomed either to a total beggary or total dependence on Russia. And, by the way, on Ukraine too. No matter how they strutted. Here's the answer by Igor Plotnitsky on the question about the actions of the Republic in the case Ukraine introduces an energy blockade as in Crimea: "We now establish and put in order those lines of power, which are possible between the LPR and the DPR if needed. In order to share energy with each other - 2.23X2.28. It’s no secret that the DPR is now producing enough electricity and if they offer us normal, good prices that are competitive, why not? Just market of Ukraine – all are tied to it, Russia and Belarus, not only the DPR and LPR. And to say that we can so easily get out - nobody is able and will do."
Apart from electricity, there us an acute issue of water supply on the occupied territories.
"Crimea endured, still endures, absence of light. Well, our people will have to endure a little bit when we run all of our watercourses. And then we will be independent by 85-90%... But do you know what else is the problem? The problem is that we put on the pump, give 6000 for example, and Ukraine reduces by 6000. So, if we do something on our own – they reduce such amount of water for us on the other side"- complains the leader of the "LPR".
Besides water and electricity supply, the issue of coal sale is painful in the so-called "Republic". The DPR ships15 thousand tons daily to Ukraine. This was stated by "acting Head of the strategy of industrial development administration of the head of the DPR" Eduard Polyakov. The leaders of groups talk about it as of benefit for Ukraine, which Kiev lost when the Right Sector and Tatars began electricity blockage of Crimea. However, the sale of coal to Ukraine is more needed to Donetsk than Kiev. Firstly, it is money and wages to miners, secondly - the sale of their products, which is not needed in Russia, and thirdly - forest, without which the mine cannot work, and that comes from Ukraine in exchange for coal. I'm not talking about the illegal coal industry, which gives the leaders of the DPR-LPR millions of income. Perhaps, that is why they are interested in the shadow industry. Else how can you explain the contradiction: the head of the LPR Plotnitsky claims that LPR does not sell coal to Ukraine, "No, we do deliver coal to the territory of Ukraine", - he said at a press conference a week ago. And just a month ago the "Minister of State Security of the LPR" Leonid Pasechnik said on the activities of the Minister of the coal industry of the LPR Lyamin: "Since the beginning of the year Lyamin has sold to Ukraine more than 3 million tons of coal production, that is 90% of the total produced and sold coal in the Luhansk republic ...".
So, we can say with confidence that there is no independent economy of the LPR-DPR and there will be no. Because of the fact that neither Russia, nor Ukraine, due to which "Republics" survive, are interested in it.
But the less food people have got in the refrigerator, the more propaganda there is on the TV. For example, the state channels in DNR (and there all the channels are state, others are simply prohibited) are an eternal holiday. There are not problems at all - except for Ukraine. And when real events are not enough, the Kremlin spin doctors just make them up. Moreover, it is done at the level of the ordinary clowning.
For example, if Ukraine celebrates the day of Holodomor, then in captured Donetsk Zakharchenko eats tellingly at street fairs. If in Kiev people celebrate the day of the Armed Forces, then there is a demonstration on the Lenin Square in honour of the "Colorado" St. George Ribbon ...
"You will become the new Brest, rise, Donbass!" - the loudspeakers shouted at the demonstration in Donetsk, organized by activists of the Young Republic NGO on December 10th. It was held under the slogan "Hear the voice of Donbass!". What can you expect from people who are willing for their homeland the fate of the Brest Fortress – a fortification completely destroyed and captured by the Germans…
Sergey Garmash, OstroV